NBA games

IND @ WSH

NBA Capital One Arena ·Final
162–109
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
IND45384237162
WSH31302721109

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (WSH) / 10 (IND) games this season
IND away
home WSH
56% 44%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyrese Haliburton S 25 29 2 6
Myles Turner S 21 17 5 2
Jarace Walker 25 16 5 5
Obi Toppin 16 15 2 4
Pascal Siakam S 23 13 2 5
Thomas Bryant 14 12 7 0
Aaron Nesmith S 19 11 4 0
T.J. McConnell 17 10 9 8
Bennedict Mathurin 22 10 2 1
Tony Bradley 9 8 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Alex Sarr S 28 22 7 1
Jordan Poole S 25 18 0 3
Justin Champagnie S 33 15 7 1
Bub Carrington S 31 13 4 6
Colby Jones 30 12 2 2
Richaun Holmes 13 9 3 1
Khris Middleton S 14 8 1 2
Tristan Vukcevic 15 4 2 1
Jaylen Martin 23 4 1 2
Anthony Gill 3 2 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Tyrese Haliburton · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:46 Q1
"Tyrese Haliburton makes 26-foot three point jumper (Andrew Nembhard assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Myles Turner IND
10%
2 Pascal Siakam IND
10%
3 Alex Sarr WSH
9%
4 Tyrese Haliburton IND
9%
5 Kyshawn George WSH
8%
6 Aaron Nesmith IND
8%
7 Jordan Poole WSH
8%
8 AJ Johnson WSH
8%
9 Andrew Nembhard IND
8%
10 Khris Middleton WSH
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
32%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
5%
Jumper
34%
Layup
24%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Tyrese Haliburton IND 23.2 4.1 11.7
2 Pascal Siakam IND 22.8 6.2 4.5
3 Alex Sarr WSH 19.1 7.0 2.6
4 Jordan Poole WSH 16.9 3.2 3.7
5 Bennedict Mathurin IND 16.4 5.1 2.1
6 Myles Turner IND 15.9 7.4 1.9
7 Aaron Nesmith IND 14.1 4.2 2.1
8 Kyshawn George WSH 12.2 5.1 2.7
9 Andrew Nembhard IND 11.8 3.5 4.7
10 Obi Toppin IND 11.7 4.1 1.8
11 Khris Middleton WSH 11.4 3.7 3.3
12 Bub Carrington WSH 10.5 4.4 4.5
13 AJ Johnson WSH 10.1 3.1 3.2
14 Tristan Vukcevic WSH 9.9 4.8 1.4
15 Richaun Holmes WSH 9.4 7.5 1.6
16 Justin Champagnie WSH 8.4 6.4 1.3
17 T.J. McConnell IND 7.9 2.7 4.0
18 Jarace Walker IND 5.3 2.2 1.2
19 Thomas Bryant IND 5.3 3.2 0.7
20 Colby Jones WSH 5.2 2.7 1.3
21 Ben Sheppard IND 4.8 3.3 1.5
22 Jaylen Martin WSH 4.5 2.6 0.8
23 Anthony Gill WSH 3.5 1.3 0.6
24 Quenton Jackson IND 3.1 1.2 1.1
25 Tony Bradley IND 3.0 1.7 0.4
26 Johnny Furphy IND 2.2 1.8 0.5
27 James Johnson IND 1.7 0.8 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.