NBA games

DAL @ ORL

NBA Kia Center ·Final
101–92
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DAL19243424101
ORL1733202292

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ORL) / 10 (DAL) games this season
DAL away
home ORL
30% 70%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaden Hardy 20 22 3 0
Anthony Davis S 29 15 7 2
Brandon Williams 27 14 3 6
Klay Thompson S 26 12 4 0
Max Christie 29 12 3 2
Spencer Dinwiddie S 25 7 4 4
Naji Marshall S 41 6 4 3
Caleb Martin 17 5 4 2
Kai Jones S 7 4 5 0
Dwight Powell 19 4 3 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Paolo Banchero S 38 35 10 4
Franz Wagner S 36 20 9 2
Anthony Black 26 14 3 3
Wendell Carter Jr. S 28 12 5 1
Cory Joseph S 22 6 2 1
Goga Bitadze 18 3 5 2
Tristan da Silva 6 2 1 0
Gary Harris 12 0 1 0
Jonathan Isaac 6 0 4 1
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 33 0 4 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Klay Thompson · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:20 Q1
"Klay Thompson makes 19-foot pullup jump shot (Spencer Dinwiddie assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Paolo Banchero ORL
17%
2 Franz Wagner ORL
11%
3 Anthony Davis DAL
10%
4 Naji Marshall DAL
9%
5 P.J. Washington DAL
8%
6 Dereck Lively II DAL
8%
7 Spencer Dinwiddie DAL
7%
8 Kai Jones DAL
6%
9 Klay Thompson DAL
6%
10 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
8%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
56%
Jumper
14%
Layup
21%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Paolo Banchero ORL 29.5 7.7 4.6
2 Franz Wagner ORL 24.4 6.5 5.5
3 Naji Marshall DAL 23.9 7.6 4.0
4 Anthony Davis DAL 23.4 11.4 3.5
5 Spencer Dinwiddie DAL 18.6 3.7 6.1
6 P.J. Washington DAL 17.9 6.5 2.2
7 Brandon Williams DAL 17.1 3.8 4.1
8 Klay Thompson DAL 16.0 4.1 2.7
9 Anthony Black ORL 11.9 3.9 2.6
10 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 10.9 7.4 1.5
11 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ORL 10.7 3.2 2.0
12 Max Christie DAL 10.2 4.6 2.3
13 Dereck Lively II DAL 10.0 8.3 2.7
14 Jaden Hardy DAL 7.5 1.7 1.4
15 Cory Joseph ORL 7.5 2.7 2.5
16 Kai Jones DAL 7.4 4.8 0.7
17 Caleb Martin DAL 5.7 2.6 1.8
18 Caleb Houstan ORL 5.7 1.5 0.8
19 Tristan da Silva ORL 5.0 2.2 1.1
20 Dwight Powell DAL 4.5 3.1 1.5
21 Goga Bitadze ORL 4.5 3.4 1.1
22 Gary Harris ORL 3.6 2.1 1.1
23 Jonathan Isaac ORL 3.5 2.9 0.6
24 Jett Howard ORL 2.8 1.1 0.7
25 Trevelin Queen ORL 2.4 1.4 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.