NBA games

SA @ CLE

NBA Rocket Arena ·Final
116–124
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SA24253433116
CLE30243238124

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CLE) / 10 (SA) games this season
SA away
home CLE
30% 70%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Devin Vassell S 37 22 3 4
Stephon Castle S 32 22 11 8
Keldon Johnson 27 17 10 0
Julian Champagnie 24 16 7 1
Jeremy Sochan 23 13 5 2
Harrison Barnes S 27 10 2 2
Bismack Biyombo S 15 8 6 1
Chris Paul S 33 5 4 5
Blake Wesley 14 3 0 1
Sandro Mamukelashvili 7 0 2 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jarrett Allen S 30 29 15 0
Donovan Mitchell S 35 25 8 14
Max Strus S 29 18 4 4
De'Andre Hunter 31 14 7 2
Sam Merrill 24 13 2 2
Darius Garland S 30 10 4 9
Isaac Okoro 19 9 4 1
Dean Wade S 25 3 3 0
Javonte Green 9 3 5 1
Tristan Thompson 8 0 4 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Chris Paul · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"Chris Paul makes 16-foot jumper (Stephon Castle assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE
14%
2 Jarrett Allen CLE
13%
3 Darius Garland CLE
12%
4 Harrison Barnes SA
12%
5 Stephon Castle SA
11%
6 Devin Vassell SA
10%
7 Bismack Biyombo SA
8%
8 Max Strus CLE
7%
9 Chris Paul SA
7%
10 Sam Merrill CLE
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
17%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
19%
Jumper
25%
Layup
35%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE 24.0 4.9 5.7
2 Darius Garland CLE 21.6 4.5 7.1
3 Stephon Castle SA 19.8 4.5 5.1
4 Devin Vassell SA 19.7 5.6 3.4
5 Jarrett Allen CLE 14.7 8.8 2.2
6 Keldon Johnson SA 14.1 5.1 2.2
7 Harrison Barnes SA 13.1 3.5 1.6
8 De'Andre Hunter CLE 12.8 4.1 1.8
9 Jeremy Sochan SA 12.0 5.7 1.9
10 Max Strus CLE 10.8 4.3 2.6
11 Chris Paul SA 8.3 3.0 5.8
12 Sandro Mamukelashvili SA 8.3 3.9 1.1
13 Julian Champagnie SA 8.0 3.7 1.7
14 Sam Merrill CLE 7.4 3.0 1.8
15 Isaac Okoro CLE 6.4 2.4 1.2
16 Dean Wade CLE 6.1 3.4 1.1
17 Blake Wesley SA 5.9 1.8 2.1
18 Bismack Biyombo SA 5.0 4.6 1.3
19 Javonte Green CLE 4.9 2.8 1.0
20 Malaki Branham SA 3.2 1.4 0.6
21 Jordan McLaughlin SA 3.1 1.1 1.1
22 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 2.2 1.4 1.0
23 Tristan Thompson CLE 2.0 2.0 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.