NBA games

BOS @ PHX

NBA Mortgage Matchup Center ·Final
132–102
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BOS42313524132
PHX38162721102

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHX) / 10 (BOS) games this season
BOS away
home PHX
51% 49%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kristaps Porzingis S 29 30 8 2
Jaylen Brown S 28 24 3 5
Al Horford S 26 16 10 5
Derrick White S 31 16 4 7
Jrue Holiday S 30 16 2 3
Sam Hauser 21 11 3 3
Payton Pritchard 25 7 6 4
Neemias Queta 6 4 3 0
Baylor Scheierman 13 3 0 4
Torrey Craig 6 3 3 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kevin Durant S 30 30 1 2
Devin Booker S 34 14 7 10
Nick Richards S 19 10 4 0
Tyus Jones 21 8 4 5
Cody Martin 13 8 1 1
Bol Bol 6 8 1 0
Oso Ighodaro 21 6 2 0
Ryan Dunn S 22 6 5 0
Collin Gillespie S 16 5 1 0
Damion Lee 6 3 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jaylen Brown · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:45 Q1
"Jaylen Brown makes 25-foot three point jumper (Kristaps Porzingis assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Devin Booker PHX
13%
2 Jaylen Brown BOS
10%
3 Kristaps Porzingis BOS
10%
4 Nick Richards PHX
9%
5 Derrick White BOS
8%
6 Jrue Holiday BOS
8%
7 Al Horford BOS
8%
8 Jayson Tatum BOS
8%
9 Kevin Durant PHX
7%
10 Ryan Dunn PHX
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
20%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
14%
Jumper
43%
Layup
19%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jayson Tatum BOS 30.1 8.3 7.0
2 Kevin Durant PHX 25.0 6.1 5.3
3 Devin Booker PHX 24.4 4.6 7.8
4 Jaylen Brown BOS 22.5 5.8 4.2
5 Kristaps Porzingis BOS 19.6 6.4 2.4
6 Derrick White BOS 18.1 4.6 6.1
7 Nick Richards PHX 12.5 7.8 1.3
8 Payton Pritchard BOS 12.4 3.2 2.7
9 Al Horford BOS 11.6 7.2 2.9
10 Jrue Holiday BOS 11.3 3.9 4.5
11 Sam Hauser BOS 10.0 3.1 1.0
12 Tyus Jones PHX 9.2 2.4 3.5
13 Ryan Dunn PHX 9.0 4.3 1.0
14 Grayson Allen PHX 8.2 2.3 2.1
15 Royce O'Neale PHX 7.8 4.5 2.9
16 Luke Kornet BOS 7.3 5.8 1.2
17 Vasilije Micic PHX 7.3 2.0 2.7
18 Bol Bol PHX 6.0 3.0 0.8
19 Cody Martin PHX 5.7 3.5 1.6
20 Baylor Scheierman BOS 5.5 2.1 1.2
21 Oso Ighodaro PHX 5.4 4.5 1.4
22 Mason Plumlee PHX 5.0 5.3 0.9
23 Collin Gillespie PHX 4.9 2.4 2.3
24 Neemias Queta BOS 4.2 4.1 0.9
25 Torrey Craig BOS 3.3 1.9 0.6
26 Jordan Walsh BOS 2.9 1.8 0.8
27 Damion Lee PHX 2.7 0.7 0.4
28 Monte Morris PHX 2.5 0.7 1.0

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.