NBA games

MIL @ DEN

NBA Ball Arena ·Final
117–127
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIL27372825117
DEN38293327127

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DEN) / 10 (MIL) games this season
MIL away
home DEN
46% 54%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Brook Lopez S 38 26 7 3
Ryan Rollins 18 17 1 3
Gary Trent Jr. S 34 16 4 0
Taurean Prince S 33 15 0 5
AJ Green 34 15 5 5
Kevin Porter Jr. S 30 12 7 8
Kyle Kuzma S 36 10 7 4
Pat Connaughton 17 6 8 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Jokic S 38 39 10 10
Michael Porter Jr. S 34 23 10 4
Christian Braun S 38 19 10 6
Jamal Murray S 37 17 4 6
Peyton Watson 34 12 7 2
Aaron Gordon S 19 7 2 1
Russell Westbrook 24 6 2 6
Jalen Pickett 14 4 0 0
DeAndre Jordan 3 0 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Michael Porter Jr. · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"Michael Porter Jr. makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jamal Murray assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jamal Murray DEN
12%
2 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
11%
3 Christian Braun DEN
10%
4 Nikola Jokic DEN
10%
5 Brook Lopez MIL
9%
6 DeAndre Jordan DEN
9%
7 Kyle Kuzma MIL
8%
8 Peyton Watson DEN
8%
9 Aaron Gordon DEN
7%
10 Taurean Prince MIL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
19%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
17%
Jumper
28%
Layup
31%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 29.1 12.8 9.3
2 Jamal Murray DEN 23.1 3.9 6.2
3 Aaron Gordon DEN 20.2 4.9 3.3
4 Russell Westbrook DEN 17.4 5.6 7.2
5 Christian Braun DEN 16.2 4.4 3.2
6 Brook Lopez MIL 16.0 5.6 1.8
7 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 15.9 7.3 2.1
8 Kyle Kuzma MIL 14.3 5.4 2.3
9 Gary Trent Jr. MIL 12.4 2.2 1.8
10 Taurean Prince MIL 10.6 3.3 2.1
11 Kevin Porter Jr. MIL 9.4 3.3 2.7
12 Peyton Watson DEN 9.2 3.6 1.3
13 Ryan Rollins MIL 6.0 2.6 1.8
14 AJ Green MIL 5.9 2.2 1.9
15 DeAndre Jordan DEN 4.6 6.0 1.4
16 Jalen Pickett DEN 4.6 1.4 1.9
17 Zeke Nnaji DEN 4.0 2.6 0.8
18 Pat Connaughton MIL 3.6 1.7 1.2
19 Dario Saric DEN 3.6 2.7 1.4
20 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 2.8 1.3 0.6
21 Hunter Tyson DEN 2.8 1.2 0.5
22 Vlatko Cancar DEN 2.7 2.4 0.8
23 Tyler Smith MIL 2.5 1.1 0.5
24 Pete Nance MIL 2.3 1.1 0.5
25 Chris Livingston MIL 2.2 1.4 0.4
26 Spencer Jones DEN 1.8 1.2 0.3
27 Stanley Umude MIL 1.6 0.8 0.4
28 Trey Alexander DEN 1.1 0.7 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.