NBA games

LAC @ NY

NBA Madison Square Garden ·Final
126–113
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAC20344032126
NY33222929113

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NY) / 10 (LAC) games this season
LAC away
home NY
61% 39%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
James Harden S 37 29 6 6
Kawhi Leonard S 41 27 10 7
Norman Powell S 31 19 1 2
Ivica Zubac S 31 18 10 2
Derrick Jones Jr. 18 12 6 0
Kris Dunn S 29 9 3 6
Nicolas Batum 18 6 1 0
Bogdan Bogdanovic 18 4 0 2
Ben Simmons 16 2 8 2
Kobe Brown 1 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Karl-Anthony Towns S 39 34 14 4
OG Anunoby S 37 28 5 3
Mikal Bridges S 40 17 4 9
Cameron Payne S 18 15 2 0
Josh Hart S 34 7 5 6
Landry Shamet 19 6 2 2
Precious Achiuwa 8 6 3 0
Anton Watson 1 0 0 0
MarJon Beauchamp 1 0 0 0
Mitchell Robinson 13 0 2 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Karl-Anthony Towns · Layup (2 pts) · 11:14 Q1
"Karl-Anthony Towns makes driving layup (Mikal Bridges assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Kawhi Leonard LAC
14%
2 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
12%
3 Ivica Zubac LAC
12%
4 James Harden LAC
11%
5 Norman Powell LAC
11%
6 Mikal Bridges NY
9%
7 Josh Hart NY
9%
8 OG Anunoby NY
9%
9 Cameron Payne NY
7%
10 Kris Dunn LAC
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
17%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
9%
Jumper
50%
Layup
20%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 James Harden LAC 27.1 5.9 8.1
2 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 24.3 9.9 4.0
3 Kawhi Leonard LAC 23.8 7.0 3.7
4 Mikal Bridges NY 22.1 4.1 5.1
5 Ivica Zubac LAC 20.5 11.5 2.9
6 OG Anunoby NY 20.2 5.2 2.7
7 Norman Powell LAC 16.7 3.1 2.2
8 Bogdan Bogdanovic LAC 13.5 4.5 3.5
9 Josh Hart NY 13.1 9.4 6.0
10 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC 9.7 3.5 0.9
11 Amir Coffey LAC 7.1 1.9 1.0
12 Kris Dunn LAC 6.5 2.8 2.3
13 Cameron Payne NY 6.5 1.9 3.1
14 Nicolas Batum LAC 6.0 3.6 1.2
15 Landry Shamet NY 6.0 1.8 0.9
16 Ben Simmons LAC 5.4 3.9 2.9
17 Precious Achiuwa NY 5.0 3.8 0.7
18 Mitchell Robinson NY 4.9 5.3 0.7
19 MarJon Beauchamp NY 3.0 1.4 0.8
20 Tyler Kolek NY 2.7 1.0 1.9
21 Delon Wright NY 2.6 1.5 0.9
22 Anton Watson NY 2.5 1.2 0.6
23 Drew Eubanks LAC 2.4 2.5 0.3
24 Patty Mills LAC 1.5 0.6 0.4
25 Kobe Brown LAC 1.4 0.8 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.