NBA games

LAL @ IND

NBA Gainbridge Fieldhouse ·Final
120–119
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAL28402725120
IND33223727119

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (IND) / 10 (LAL) games this season
LAL away
home IND
21% 79%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Luka Doncic S 38 34 7 7
Austin Reaves S 36 24 4 5
Rui Hachimura S 28 14 4 1
LeBron James S 38 13 13 7
Jaxson Hayes S 18 13 2 1
Dorian Finney-Smith 31 11 3 1
Gabe Vincent 22 6 1 0
Dalton Knecht 5 3 1 0
Jordan Goodwin 7 2 2 1
Jarred Vanderbilt 16 0 6 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Bennedict Mathurin 30 23 5 2
Andrew Nembhard S 39 16 7 3
Tyrese Haliburton S 32 16 0 18
Myles Turner S 35 16 12 1
Pascal Siakam S 36 15 6 2
Aaron Nesmith S 21 13 1 2
Obi Toppin 19 10 2 0
Jarace Walker 8 5 2 1
T.J. McConnell 12 5 1 2
Ben Sheppard 7 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jaxson Hayes · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:42 Q1
"Jaxson Hayes makes 1-foot alley oop dunk shot (Luka Doncic assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Pascal Siakam IND
12%
2 Austin Reaves LAL
12%
3 Myles Turner IND
12%
4 LeBron James LAL
11%
5 Jaxson Hayes LAL
10%
6 Aaron Nesmith IND
9%
7 Andrew Nembhard IND
9%
8 Tyrese Haliburton IND
8%
9 Luka Doncic LAL
8%
10 Dorian Finney-Smith LAL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
16%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
20%
Jumper
29%
Layup
28%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic LAL 29.6 9.0 8.4
2 LeBron James LAL 26.1 10.4 6.2
3 Pascal Siakam IND 24.0 6.2 4.6
4 Austin Reaves LAL 23.7 5.6 5.8
5 Tyrese Haliburton IND 22.6 3.8 12.9
6 Bennedict Mathurin IND 16.7 5.0 2.3
7 Myles Turner IND 16.1 7.2 1.8
8 Aaron Nesmith IND 14.7 4.2 1.9
9 Rui Hachimura LAL 13.1 4.9 1.5
10 Obi Toppin IND 11.5 4.0 1.8
11 Andrew Nembhard IND 11.3 3.2 5.3
12 Dalton Knecht LAL 11.1 3.2 1.6
13 Jaxson Hayes LAL 9.7 6.5 1.4
14 Dorian Finney-Smith LAL 9.4 3.9 1.2
15 Gabe Vincent LAL 9.0 1.8 1.4
16 T.J. McConnell IND 8.0 2.8 4.6
17 Jordan Goodwin LAL 7.5 4.3 1.7
18 Thomas Bryant IND 5.8 3.5 0.7
19 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL 5.0 3.6 1.4
20 Jarace Walker IND 5.0 1.7 1.2
21 Ben Sheppard IND 4.9 3.3 1.5
22 Shake Milton LAL 3.9 1.7 1.0
23 Markieff Morris LAL 3.7 1.4 1.1
24 Quenton Jackson IND 3.3 1.4 1.1
25 Christian Koloko LAL 2.8 2.6 0.6
26 Tony Bradley IND 2.7 1.7 0.4
27 Cam Reddish LAL 2.4 1.5 0.4
28 Alex Len LAL 2.4 2.7 0.7
29 Johnny Furphy IND 2.4 1.9 0.6
30 James Johnson IND 1.4 0.8 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.