NBA games

OKC @ SAC

NBA Golden 1 Center ·Final
121–105
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
OKC31332532121
SAC21213924105

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SAC) / 10 (OKC) games this season
OKC away
home SAC
86% 14%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 33 32 8 5
Chet Holmgren S 33 18 10 2
Alex Caruso 23 15 5 6
Isaiah Joe 28 14 3 3
Luguentz Dort S 32 13 4 1
Kenrich Williams S 28 11 4 6
Jaylin Williams 21 9 8 2
Dillon Jones 12 5 0 0
Isaiah Hartenstein S 27 4 10 5
Branden Carlson 2 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Keegan Murray S 37 28 6 0
Zach LaVine S 37 19 2 7
Keon Ellis S 37 12 3 4
Jake LaRavia 21 11 2 2
DeMar DeRozan S 38 10 6 6
Doug McDermott 4 9 0 0
Domantas Sabonis S 38 8 12 7
Markelle Fultz 11 6 2 2
Jonas Valanciunas 8 2 2 1
Isaac Jones 2 0 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
DeMar DeRozan · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:42 Q1
"DeMar DeRozan makes 16-foot pullup jump shot (Domantas Sabonis assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
23%
2 DeMar DeRozan SAC
10%
3 Chet Holmgren OKC
10%
4 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC
9%
5 Domantas Sabonis SAC
8%
6 Zach LaVine SAC
8%
7 Alex Caruso OKC
7%
8 Cason Wallace OKC
6%
9 Keegan Murray SAC
6%
10 Luguentz Dort OKC
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
7%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
20%
Jumper
36%
Layup
36%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 32.9 5.0 8.2
2 DeMar DeRozan SAC 23.3 4.1 6.0
3 Zach LaVine SAC 21.2 3.8 4.0
4 Chet Holmgren OKC 15.9 7.9 2.0
5 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC 14.3 10.1 3.8
6 Domantas Sabonis SAC 13.3 11.2 5.3
7 Cason Wallace OKC 12.7 3.8 3.0
8 Keegan Murray SAC 12.2 6.0 1.6
9 Keon Ellis SAC 11.4 2.8 2.7
10 Luguentz Dort OKC 11.0 4.1 1.8
11 Isaiah Joe OKC 11.0 2.9 2.4
12 Jonas Valanciunas SAC 9.2 8.0 2.0
13 Jake LaRavia SAC 9.1 3.2 1.5
14 Jaylin Williams OKC 8.5 5.7 2.9
15 Alex Caruso OKC 8.5 2.7 2.0
16 Trey Lyles SAC 6.8 4.4 1.7
17 Kenrich Williams OKC 6.5 3.4 1.4
18 Devin Carter SAC 4.7 2.0 1.1
19 Isaac Jones SAC 4.2 1.7 0.7
20 Branden Carlson OKC 3.8 1.8 0.5
21 Jae Crowder SAC 3.8 2.1 0.7
22 Markelle Fultz SAC 3.3 1.2 0.9
23 Dillon Jones OKC 2.8 1.7 0.9
24 Terry Taylor SAC 2.5 1.0 0.7
25 Adam Flagler OKC 2.4 1.1 0.7
26 Isaiah Crawford SAC 2.4 1.3 0.5
27 Doug McDermott SAC 1.9 0.4 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.