NBA games

CLE @ POR

NBA Moda Center ·Final
122–111
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CLE33273230122
POR33193425111

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (POR) / 10 (CLE) games this season
CLE away
home POR
58% 42%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Darius Garland S 33 27 5 8
Ty Jerome 21 25 2 3
Evan Mobley S 33 21 12 4
Jarrett Allen S 29 14 8 2
Sam Merrill S 30 14 2 3
De'Andre Hunter 23 11 3 0
Max Strus S 27 5 2 3
Dean Wade 21 3 1 1
Isaac Okoro 17 2 4 3
Javonte Green 7 0 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shaedon Sharpe S 40 18 4 2
Scoot Henderson 30 18 6 6
Donovan Clingan S 32 18 12 2
Deni Avdija S 38 17 10 6
Matisse Thybulle 15 15 3 1
Toumani Camara S 31 13 4 1
Anfernee Simons S 30 7 1 8
Dalano Banton 14 3 4 2
Duop Reath 11 2 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Deni Avdija · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:38 Q1
"Deni Avdija makes 26-foot three pointer (Toumani Camara assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anfernee Simons POR
13%
2 Deandre Ayton POR
13%
3 Evan Mobley CLE
10%
4 Shaedon Sharpe POR
10%
5 Deni Avdija POR
9%
6 Jarrett Allen CLE
8%
7 Jerami Grant POR
8%
8 Donovan Clingan POR
8%
9 Darius Garland CLE
7%
10 Toumani Camara POR
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
22%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
33%
Jumper
16%
Layup
28%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Deni Avdija POR 23.9 9.7 5.8
2 Anfernee Simons POR 23.5 3.5 4.1
3 Darius Garland CLE 20.1 4.1 6.5
4 Evan Mobley CLE 19.5 9.4 3.3
5 Shaedon Sharpe POR 19.4 5.6 3.4
6 Deandre Ayton POR 17.9 10.8 2.4
7 Scoot Henderson POR 15.3 3.6 4.1
8 Toumani Camara POR 13.1 5.4 2.8
9 Jarrett Allen CLE 12.8 8.5 1.9
10 De'Andre Hunter CLE 11.9 3.9 1.7
11 Ty Jerome CLE 11.7 2.6 3.2
12 Jerami Grant POR 11.6 3.5 2.0
13 Max Strus CLE 11.2 4.1 2.3
14 Donovan Clingan POR 8.6 9.6 1.7
15 Duop Reath POR 7.6 4.1 1.4
16 Jabari Walker POR 7.0 4.0 1.1
17 Sam Merrill CLE 6.2 2.6 1.4
18 Isaac Okoro CLE 5.8 1.8 1.0
19 Matisse Thybulle POR 5.5 3.6 1.1
20 Dean Wade CLE 5.4 2.8 1.0
21 Javonte Green CLE 4.6 2.4 0.8
22 Dalano Banton POR 4.2 2.0 1.4
23 Kris Murray POR 4.2 3.7 1.1
24 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 2.6 1.5 1.1
25 Tristan Thompson CLE 2.5 2.1 0.6
26 Rayan Rupert POR 1.6 1.0 0.3
27 Justin Minaya POR 1.5 0.9 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.