NBA games

MEM @ UTAH

NBA Delta Center ·Final
140–103
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MEM29354135140
UTAH35301721103

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (UTAH) / 10 (MEM) games this season
MEM away
home UTAH
64% 36%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Desmond Bane S 30 21 4 6
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 23 19 3 1
Scotty Pippen Jr. S 24 16 5 10
Zach Edey 21 15 7 2
Jay Huff 18 15 6 0
Vince Williams Jr. 22 15 4 1
Jaylen Wells S 29 10 6 5
Santi Aldama S 23 9 5 3
John Konchar 20 8 7 3
Luke Kennard 23 8 3 6
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Isaiah Collier S 28 21 3 4
Collin Sexton S 18 15 3 5
Johnny Juzang 18 13 1 5
Kyle Filipowski S 24 13 2 0
Brice Sensabaugh 21 9 1 5
Cody Williams S 28 8 1 1
Walker Kessler S 28 7 9 1
Keyonte George 23 6 1 1
Oscar Tshiebwe 18 6 3 0
KJ Martin 24 5 2 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Isaiah Collier · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:36 Q1
"Isaiah Collier makes 24-foot three point jumper (Collin Sexton assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Collin Sexton UTAH
13%
2 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
11%
3 Kyle Filipowski UTAH
10%
4 Walker Kessler UTAH
10%
5 Isaiah Collier UTAH
10%
6 Desmond Bane MEM
9%
7 Santi Aldama MEM
8%
8 Scotty Pippen Jr. MEM
8%
9 Cody Williams UTAH
7%
10 Svi Mykhailiuk UTAH
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
18%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
21%
Jumper
27%
Layup
29%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Desmond Bane MEM 23.1 7.6 5.7
2 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 21.2 4.7 2.3
3 Collin Sexton UTAH 20.6 3.4 5.4
4 Keyonte George UTAH 18.3 4.0 5.7
5 Kyle Filipowski UTAH 13.9 6.4 2.3
6 Santi Aldama MEM 13.6 6.1 4.6
7 Luke Kennard MEM 12.8 3.4 4.2
8 Scotty Pippen Jr. MEM 12.7 3.9 5.0
9 Isaiah Collier UTAH 12.0 4.5 6.3
10 Brice Sensabaugh UTAH 11.6 3.4 1.9
11 Walker Kessler UTAH 11.5 10.5 2.1
12 Johnny Juzang UTAH 11.1 3.8 1.5
13 Zach Edey MEM 8.9 7.4 1.3
14 Vince Williams Jr. MEM 7.7 3.7 2.3
15 Svi Mykhailiuk UTAH 7.7 2.4 2.0
16 Jaylen Wells MEM 6.9 3.6 1.7
17 KJ Martin UTAH 6.6 3.1 1.5
18 Cody Williams UTAH 6.5 3.0 1.1
19 Jay Huff MEM 4.6 2.0 0.8
20 Cam Spencer MEM 4.4 1.2 1.1
21 Elijah Harkless UTAH 4.3 2.1 1.0
22 Oscar Tshiebwe UTAH 4.1 6.1 0.5
23 Lamar Stevens MEM 4.0 2.9 0.7
24 John Konchar MEM 3.1 2.4 0.8
25 Jaden Springer UTAH 2.9 1.3 1.1

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.