NBA games

ATL @ HOU

NBA Toyota Center (Houston) ·Final
114–121
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ATL23252640114
HOU30352927121

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (HOU) / 10 (ATL) games this season
ATL away
home HOU
18% 82%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Dyson Daniels S 36 19 8 10
Trae Young S 39 19 2 12
Zaccharie Risacher S 24 18 4 1
Terance Mann 25 16 4 1
Onyeka Okongwu S 38 14 15 3
Georges Niang 22 12 0 2
Vit Krejci 12 5 1 1
Caris LeVert 20 5 1 0
Mouhamed Gueye S 9 4 4 1
Dominick Barlow 10 2 3 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Green S 41 32 11 4
Fred VanVleet S 39 21 4 3
Alperen Sengun S 38 18 9 5
Jabari Smith Jr. 33 17 5 1
Tari Eason S 25 10 14 0
Dillon Brooks S 29 10 0 2
Steven Adams 25 7 7 1
Aaron Holiday 10 6 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Onyeka Okongwu · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:14 Q1
"Onyeka Okongwu makes 6-foot hook shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Alperen Sengun HOU
14%
2 Trae Young ATL
12%
3 Jalen Johnson ATL
11%
4 Amen Thompson HOU
10%
5 Jalen Green HOU
9%
6 Dyson Daniels ATL
9%
7 Zaccharie Risacher ATL
9%
8 Onyeka Okongwu ATL
8%
9 Dillon Brooks HOU
8%
10 Mouhamed Gueye ATL
5%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
8%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
22%
Jumper
28%
Layup
33%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Trae Young ATL 27.0 3.6 10.3
2 Jalen Green HOU 22.1 5.6 5.6
3 Alperen Sengun HOU 20.6 10.8 6.0
4 Amen Thompson HOU 18.1 9.5 4.8
5 Caris LeVert ATL 17.8 3.4 3.5
6 Dillon Brooks HOU 17.8 3.6 2.7
7 Jalen Johnson ATL 17.6 9.8 4.2
8 Tari Eason HOU 16.1 6.7 2.8
9 Dyson Daniels ATL 15.7 6.3 5.6
10 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 15.3 9.9 2.4
11 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 15.1 5.7 1.8
12 Zaccharie Risacher ATL 14.0 4.1 1.4
13 Fred VanVleet HOU 12.9 3.5 4.3
14 Georges Niang ATL 11.5 2.9 2.0
15 Terance Mann ATL 10.1 3.1 1.8
16 Vit Krejci ATL 7.4 2.9 2.8
17 Steven Adams HOU 6.3 7.0 1.8
18 Mouhamed Gueye ATL 5.8 3.5 1.0
19 Aaron Holiday HOU 5.8 1.3 1.1
20 Dominick Barlow ATL 5.4 3.3 0.8
21 Cam Whitmore HOU 4.0 1.4 0.9
22 Reed Sheppard HOU 3.9 1.2 1.2
23 Garrison Mathews ATL 3.8 1.7 0.5
24 Jock Landale HOU 3.4 2.2 0.5
25 Jeff Green HOU 3.3 1.6 0.6
26 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 2.8 2.2 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.