NBA games

DAL @ NY

NBA Madison Square Garden ·Final
113–128
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DAL35331629113
NY37313030128

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NY) / 10 (DAL) games this season
DAL away
home NY
47% 53%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Naji Marshall S 38 38 7 1
Brandon Williams 28 22 1 3
Jaden Hardy 23 15 2 0
Spencer Dinwiddie S 35 13 4 7
Kai Jones S 24 9 8 2
Klay Thompson S 22 6 3 1
Max Christie 31 6 1 2
Dwight Powell 21 4 3 3
Kessler Edwards S 19 0 4 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
OG Anunoby S 38 35 5 1
Karl-Anthony Towns S 34 26 12 11
Mikal Bridges S 34 21 1 1
Josh Hart S 33 16 12 11
Landry Shamet 19 11 0 0
Precious Achiuwa 20 11 2 2
Anton Watson 4 2 0 0
Cameron Payne S 30 2 3 5
Kevin McCullar Jr. 3 2 0 0
Tyler Kolek 19 2 1 9

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Josh Hart · Layup (2 pts) · 11:42 Q1
"Josh Hart makes 1-foot layup (Karl-Anthony Towns assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Mikal Bridges NY
11%
2 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
11%
3 OG Anunoby NY
10%
4 Josh Hart NY
10%
5 Dereck Lively II DAL
10%
6 Daniel Gafford DAL
9%
7 Spencer Dinwiddie DAL
9%
8 Klay Thompson DAL
8%
9 Kai Jones DAL
8%
10 Cameron Payne NY
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
19%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
20%
Jumper
30%
Layup
25%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 24.8 10.5 3.4
2 Naji Marshall DAL 23.3 8.0 4.3
3 Mikal Bridges NY 22.6 4.3 5.3
4 OG Anunoby NY 21.1 4.9 3.3
5 Spencer Dinwiddie DAL 17.0 3.4 6.1
6 Brandon Williams DAL 16.3 3.9 4.1
7 Klay Thompson DAL 15.8 4.1 2.7
8 Daniel Gafford DAL 13.0 9.9 2.2
9 Josh Hart NY 12.2 9.5 5.7
10 Max Christie DAL 10.4 4.7 2.2
11 Dereck Lively II DAL 10.0 8.4 2.7
12 Kessler Edwards DAL 9.7 3.9 1.4
13 Cameron Payne NY 6.7 1.9 3.1
14 Kai Jones DAL 6.5 4.1 0.6
15 Jaden Hardy DAL 6.4 1.5 1.4
16 Landry Shamet NY 6.0 1.9 1.0
17 Caleb Martin DAL 5.6 2.8 1.8
18 Dwight Powell DAL 4.7 3.2 1.5
19 Precious Achiuwa NY 4.2 3.9 0.8
20 Anton Watson NY 2.7 1.3 0.8
21 Tyler Kolek NY 2.6 0.9 1.7
22 Pacome Dadiet NY 2.2 0.8 0.6
23 Delon Wright NY 2.0 1.1 1.1

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.