NBA games

GS @ MIA

NBA Kaseya Center ·Final
86–112
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
GS2218301686
MIA28292629112

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIA) / 10 (GS) games this season
GS away
home MIA
32% 68%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jonathan Kuminga 25 15 2 2
Brandin Podziemski S 30 14 3 4
Gui Santos 20 13 3 0
Jimmy Butler III S 29 11 6 2
Buddy Hield 26 10 3 0
Moses Moody S 25 7 1 2
Trayce Jackson-Davis 4 4 1 0
Gary Payton II S 20 4 7 2
Quinten Post 14 3 1 3
Kevon Looney 14 3 5 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Bam Adebayo S 34 27 8 1
Tyler Herro S 36 20 3 7
Alec Burks S 24 17 2 0
Kel'el Ware S 28 14 10 0
Davion Mitchell 32 12 5 7
Andrew Wiggins S 28 10 5 5
Kyle Anderson 20 7 3 3
Pelle Larsson 4 5 0 0
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 4 0 0 0
Haywood Highsmith 30 0 6 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Alec Burks · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:16 Q1
"Alec Burks makes 25-foot three point jumper (Tyler Herro assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Tyler Herro MIA
15%
2 Jimmy Butler III GS
14%
3 Bam Adebayo MIA
12%
4 Andrew Wiggins MIA
11%
5 Kel'el Ware MIA
9%
6 Moses Moody GS
8%
7 Brandin Podziemski GS
8%
8 Draymond Green GS
8%
9 Duncan Robinson MIA
8%
10 Quinten Post GS
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
17%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
29%
Jumper
20%
Layup
29%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Andrew Wiggins MIA 22.8 4.2 3.8
2 Tyler Herro MIA 21.8 4.7 5.1
3 Jimmy Butler III GS 20.5 6.9 7.0
4 Bam Adebayo MIA 19.4 8.0 4.8
5 Jonathan Kuminga GS 17.9 4.6 3.1
6 Brandin Podziemski GS 12.9 5.9 2.5
7 Moses Moody GS 12.1 3.8 2.3
8 Draymond Green GS 11.7 6.5 5.3
9 Kel'el Ware MIA 11.1 8.4 1.4
10 Nikola Jovic MIA 10.9 3.2 3.0
11 Gary Payton II GS 10.7 4.0 1.4
12 Davion Mitchell MIA 10.6 3.2 4.8
13 Duncan Robinson MIA 9.6 2.0 1.7
14 Buddy Hield GS 8.1 3.0 1.8
15 Quinten Post GS 7.8 4.0 1.2
16 Haywood Highsmith MIA 6.6 3.3 2.0
17 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 6.4 3.5 2.1
18 Terry Rozier MIA 5.9 2.1 1.5
19 Alec Burks MIA 5.4 2.1 1.1
20 Gui Santos GS 5.1 3.3 1.3
21 Kyle Anderson MIA 4.2 2.4 1.6
22 Pelle Larsson MIA 3.9 1.2 0.9
23 Kevon Looney GS 3.3 3.6 0.6
24 Kevin Love MIA 3.3 2.9 0.7
25 Kevin Knox II GS 2.7 1.3 0.4
26 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 1.9 1.5 0.6
27 Pat Spencer GS 1.8 1.2 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.