NBA games

SA @ DET

NBA Little Caesars Arena ·Final
96–122
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SA2212352796
DET30302834122

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DET) / 10 (SA) games this season
SA away
home DET
30% 70%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Devin Vassell S 32 26 6 1
Stephon Castle S 30 19 2 4
Sandro Mamukelashvili 17 11 2 1
Keldon Johnson 22 10 5 3
Harrison Barnes S 23 9 4 3
Malaki Branham 5 5 1 0
Blake Wesley 23 5 3 0
Julian Champagnie 22 4 6 2
Chris Paul S 21 3 1 3
Jeremy Sochan 15 2 4 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Marcus Sasser 26 27 4 1
Tobias Harris S 27 15 8 4
Jalen Duren S 24 14 4 7
Ausar Thompson S 27 14 6 3
Malik Beasley 25 13 3 3
Tim Hardaway Jr. S 25 12 2 4
Ronald Holland II 18 8 6 2
Dennis Schroder S 23 7 2 6
Isaiah Stewart 20 4 6 2
Paul Reed 4 3 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Ausar Thompson · Layup (2 pts) · 11:35 Q1
"Ausar Thompson makes two point shot (Tim Hardaway Jr. assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Cade Cunningham DET
14%
2 Jalen Duren DET
11%
3 Tobias Harris DET
10%
4 Stephon Castle SA
9%
5 Tim Hardaway Jr. DET
8%
6 Harrison Barnes SA
8%
7 Ausar Thompson DET
8%
8 Devin Vassell SA
7%
9 Bismack Biyombo SA
6%
10 Dennis Schroder DET
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
85%
Jumper
6%
Layup
6%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cade Cunningham DET 30.3 5.7 10.5
2 Stephon Castle SA 20.1 4.4 4.7
3 Devin Vassell SA 18.3 5.0 3.3
4 Jalen Duren DET 15.1 10.1 2.5
5 Tobias Harris DET 14.9 6.9 2.3
6 Keldon Johnson SA 13.8 4.9 2.0
7 Harrison Barnes SA 13.2 3.3 1.4
8 Dennis Schroder DET 13.2 2.7 5.3
9 Malik Beasley DET 12.6 2.7 2.3
10 Jeremy Sochan SA 12.4 5.1 2.0
11 Tim Hardaway Jr. DET 9.7 3.2 1.5
12 Chris Paul SA 9.3 2.9 5.7
13 Ausar Thompson DET 8.9 4.5 1.7
14 Sandro Mamukelashvili SA 8.0 3.7 1.0
15 Ronald Holland II DET 7.9 2.8 1.6
16 Julian Champagnie SA 7.4 3.4 1.4
17 Isaiah Stewart DET 7.0 5.1 1.8
18 Simone Fontecchio DET 6.2 2.5 1.2
19 Marcus Sasser DET 5.9 1.3 1.8
20 Bismack Biyombo SA 5.6 5.1 1.3
21 Blake Wesley SA 5.2 1.5 2.1
22 Lindy Waters III DET 3.1 1.2 0.8
23 Malaki Branham SA 2.9 1.3 0.5
24 Paul Reed DET 2.9 2.6 0.6
25 Jordan McLaughlin SA 2.8 0.9 1.0

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.