NBA games

ORL @ CHA

NBA Spectrum Center ·Final
111–104
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ORL29342028111
CHA27263021104

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHA) / 10 (ORL) games this season
ORL away
home CHA
47% 53%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Paolo Banchero S 36 32 7 6
Franz Wagner S 35 26 8 4
Anthony Black 30 20 5 0
Caleb Houstan 23 12 0 0
Gary Harris 29 6 5 5
Wendell Carter Jr. S 26 5 11 2
Cory Joseph S 18 5 3 2
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 21 3 2 1
Goga Bitadze 22 2 9 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
LaMelo Ball S 29 25 1 9
Nick Smith Jr. 25 13 2 3
Josh Green S 21 13 0 0
Miles Bridges S 33 11 6 4
Mark Williams S 28 8 13 4
Tidjane Salaun 26 8 7 0
DaQuan Jeffries S 21 7 1 2
KJ Simpson 16 7 1 0
Jusuf Nurkic 20 5 5 3
Seth Curry 6 4 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
LaMelo Ball · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:32 Q1
"LaMelo Ball makes 23-foot three point jumper (Miles Bridges assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 LaMelo Ball CHA
22%
2 Miles Bridges CHA
12%
3 Mark Williams CHA
11%
4 Franz Wagner ORL
10%
5 Paolo Banchero ORL
9%
6 Nick Smith Jr. CHA
7%
7 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
7%
8 DaQuan Jeffries CHA
6%
9 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ORL
6%
10 Cory Joseph ORL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
39%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
30%
Jumper
10%
Layup
18%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Paolo Banchero ORL 29.2 7.8 4.7
2 Franz Wagner ORL 23.9 6.1 5.3
3 Miles Bridges CHA 23.8 8.1 4.8
4 LaMelo Ball CHA 22.2 4.8 7.8
5 Mark Williams CHA 16.6 10.9 2.9
6 Nick Smith Jr. CHA 13.2 2.9 2.9
7 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ORL 11.5 3.2 2.0
8 KJ Simpson CHA 11.4 3.8 3.9
9 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 10.3 6.9 1.4
10 DaQuan Jeffries CHA 9.9 3.0 1.2
11 Anthony Black ORL 9.8 3.3 2.8
12 Josh Okogie CHA 7.0 2.8 1.2
13 Cory Joseph ORL 6.8 2.5 2.3
14 Josh Green CHA 6.8 2.2 1.8
15 Jusuf Nurkic CHA 6.5 5.2 1.3
16 Seth Curry CHA 6.4 1.7 1.4
17 Tidjane Salaun CHA 6.0 3.9 1.2
18 Tristan da Silva ORL 5.4 2.3 1.1
19 Moussa Diabate CHA 5.4 4.2 1.0
20 Caleb Houstan ORL 5.1 1.5 0.8
21 Goga Bitadze ORL 4.2 2.9 1.0
22 Jonathan Isaac ORL 3.9 2.9 0.6
23 Taj Gibson CHA 3.9 3.5 0.6
24 Gary Harris ORL 3.4 1.9 0.7
25 Jett Howard ORL 2.8 1.1 0.7
26 Mac McClung ORL 2.3 1.1 0.9
27 Trevelin Queen ORL 2.2 1.3 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.