NBA games

BOS @ SAC

NBA Golden 1 Center ·Final
113–95
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BOS30263225113
SAC2922271795

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SAC) / 10 (BOS) games this season
BOS away
home SAC
83% 17%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jayson Tatum S 26 25 7 8
Payton Pritchard 35 22 5 2
Kristaps Porzingis S 31 16 8 2
Luke Kornet 26 13 8 3
Derrick White S 33 12 5 8
Baylor Scheierman 28 9 7 1
Jaylen Brown S 26 9 2 0
Jrue Holiday S 31 5 1 3
Neemias Queta 1 2 2 0
Jordan Walsh 1 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
DeMar DeRozan S 38 20 3 10
Domantas Sabonis S 32 16 17 1
Zach LaVine S 37 14 5 2
Keon Ellis S 37 14 3 4
Keegan Murray S 36 13 5 1
Markelle Fultz 11 8 1 2
Isaac Jones 3 4 1 0
Jonas Valanciunas 13 4 3 1
Jake LaRavia 17 2 2 1
Trey Lyles 9 0 4 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jrue Holiday · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:45 Q1
"Jrue Holiday makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jayson Tatum assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jaylen Brown BOS
12%
2 DeMar DeRozan SAC
10%
3 Kristaps Porzingis BOS
9%
4 Domantas Sabonis SAC
9%
5 Jonas Valanciunas SAC
8%
6 Jrue Holiday BOS
8%
7 Zach LaVine SAC
7%
8 Derrick White BOS
6%
9 Keegan Murray SAC
6%
10 Jayson Tatum BOS
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
11%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
19%
Jumper
28%
Layup
38%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jayson Tatum BOS 30.5 8.3 7.4
2 DeMar DeRozan SAC 24.4 4.0 5.8
3 Jaylen Brown BOS 23.2 5.9 5.0
4 Zach LaVine SAC 21.4 3.8 4.0
5 Kristaps Porzingis BOS 20.9 6.5 2.5
6 Derrick White BOS 19.0 4.6 5.6
7 Payton Pritchard BOS 15.6 3.9 3.2
8 Domantas Sabonis SAC 14.0 11.1 5.1
9 Jrue Holiday BOS 12.3 3.9 4.7
10 Keegan Murray SAC 11.5 5.8 1.5
11 Jonas Valanciunas SAC 11.4 9.6 2.6
12 Sam Hauser BOS 10.8 3.3 1.1
13 Keon Ellis SAC 10.4 3.0 2.4
14 Jake LaRavia SAC 9.2 3.4 1.5
15 Trey Lyles SAC 8.1 5.0 2.1
16 Luke Kornet BOS 6.4 5.7 1.3
17 Baylor Scheierman BOS 5.1 1.7 1.1
18 Neemias Queta BOS 4.7 4.5 0.9
19 Torrey Craig BOS 3.9 2.2 0.7
20 Jae Crowder SAC 3.8 2.1 0.7
21 JD Davison BOS 3.3 1.4 0.8
22 Isaac Jones SAC 2.9 1.2 0.4
23 Drew Peterson BOS 2.8 1.3 0.9
24 Markelle Fultz SAC 2.8 1.1 0.9
25 Jordan Walsh BOS 2.6 1.8 0.8
26 Terry Taylor SAC 2.4 1.0 0.9
27 Mason Jones SAC 1.9 0.8 0.8
28 Isaiah Crawford SAC 1.2 0.7 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.