NBA games

MIL @ PHX

NBA Mortgage Matchup Center ·Final
106–108
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIL30282028106
PHX25292727108

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHX) / 10 (MIL) games this season
MIL away
home PHX
38% 62%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 37 31 10 5
Brook Lopez S 42 23 10 3
Gary Trent Jr. 31 19 4 2
Kyle Kuzma S 34 15 2 4
Ryan Rollins S 26 8 3 3
Kevin Porter Jr. 22 5 4 3
Taurean Prince S 28 3 1 2
AJ Green 21 2 2 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kevin Durant S 37 38 8 5
Devin Booker S 40 19 7 12
Ryan Dunn S 30 12 9 0
Nick Richards S 29 10 10 1
Tyus Jones 25 8 3 3
Collin Gillespie S 22 6 5 3
Cody Martin 14 5 4 0
Oso Ighodaro 19 4 2 0
Grayson Allen 12 3 2 0
Royce O'Neale 13 3 2 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kyle Kuzma · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:34 Q1
"Kyle Kuzma makes 26-foot three point jumper (Ryan Rollins assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
17%
2 Devin Booker PHX
12%
3 Kevin Durant PHX
10%
4 Nick Richards PHX
10%
5 Oso Ighodaro PHX
9%
6 Kyle Kuzma MIL
8%
7 Brook Lopez MIL
7%
8 Taurean Prince MIL
7%
9 Collin Gillespie PHX
7%
10 Ryan Rollins MIL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
40%
Jumper
15%
Layup
36%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 28.4 11.7 6.3
2 Kevin Durant PHX 24.5 6.0 5.2
3 Devin Booker PHX 24.3 4.3 7.7
4 Kyle Kuzma MIL 13.8 5.4 1.9
5 Brook Lopez MIL 13.4 4.7 1.6
6 Nick Richards PHX 12.1 8.4 1.3
7 Gary Trent Jr. MIL 11.6 2.1 1.7
8 Taurean Prince MIL 10.2 3.4 1.8
9 Kevin Porter Jr. MIL 10.0 3.7 3.6
10 Tyus Jones PHX 9.0 2.3 3.8
11 Royce O'Neale PHX 8.1 4.8 3.0
12 Ryan Dunn PHX 7.9 3.8 0.9
13 Grayson Allen PHX 7.8 2.0 2.2
14 Vasilije Micic PHX 7.8 2.1 2.7
15 Bol Bol PHX 6.3 3.1 0.8
16 AJ Green MIL 6.2 2.0 1.8
17 Ryan Rollins MIL 5.3 2.3 1.7
18 Mason Plumlee PHX 5.3 5.5 0.9
19 Cody Martin PHX 5.2 3.3 1.7
20 Collin Gillespie PHX 4.7 2.1 2.3
21 Oso Ighodaro PHX 4.6 4.2 1.4
22 Pat Connaughton MIL 3.9 1.7 1.2
23 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 3.1 1.4 0.7
24 Damion Lee PHX 2.9 0.8 0.5
25 Tyler Smith MIL 2.8 1.2 0.6
26 Monte Morris PHX 2.8 0.7 1.0
27 Pete Nance MIL 2.6 1.2 0.6
28 Chris Livingston MIL 2.4 1.5 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.