NBA games

CHI @ DEN

NBA Ball Arena ·Final
129–119
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHI27383034129
DEN35303024119

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DEN) / 10 (CHI) games this season
CHI away
home DEN
52% 48%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Coby White S 40 37 3 4
Josh Giddey S 36 26 7 9
Dalen Terry 29 14 3 2
Jalen Smith 15 14 9 3
Nikola Vucevic S 29 13 8 2
Matas Buzelis S 24 10 4 2
Kevin Huerter S 36 9 1 6
Patrick Williams 18 6 4 2
Julian Phillips 9 0 2 0
Zach Collins 4 0 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jamal Murray S 32 28 5 7
Peyton Watson S 39 24 6 0
Christian Braun S 39 18 5 3
Michael Porter Jr. S 35 16 6 2
Russell Westbrook 26 14 5 10
DeAndre Jordan S 31 10 17 7
Zeke Nnaji 13 7 3 2
Jalen Pickett 12 2 2 3
Vlatko Cancar 13 0 3 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jamal Murray · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:45 Q1
"Jamal Murray makes 15-foot pullup jump shot (DeAndre Jordan assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Coby White CHI
12%
2 Jamal Murray DEN
12%
3 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
12%
4 Nikola Vucevic CHI
12%
5 Josh Giddey CHI
11%
6 Christian Braun DEN
11%
7 DeAndre Jordan DEN
10%
8 Matas Buzelis CHI
10%
9 Kevin Huerter CHI
8%
10 Russell Westbrook DEN
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
9%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
36%
Jumper
23%
Layup
30%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Coby White CHI 28.0 4.5 4.6
2 Josh Giddey CHI 25.4 9.9 9.6
3 Jamal Murray DEN 23.6 4.1 6.4
4 Nikola Vucevic CHI 18.0 9.5 3.8
5 Russell Westbrook DEN 17.8 5.7 6.9
6 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 16.7 7.2 2.3
7 Kevin Huerter CHI 16.2 4.3 3.1
8 Christian Braun DEN 15.9 4.2 3.6
9 Matas Buzelis CHI 12.7 4.2 1.7
10 Zach Collins CHI 9.1 6.4 1.9
11 Peyton Watson DEN 8.3 3.3 1.5
12 Patrick Williams CHI 7.5 2.8 1.5
13 Julian Phillips CHI 6.2 2.8 1.3
14 Jalen Smith CHI 5.9 4.6 1.3
15 Dalen Terry CHI 5.7 2.3 1.5
16 Jalen Pickett DEN 5.4 1.6 2.0
17 Jevon Carter CHI 4.5 1.8 1.5
18 DeAndre Jordan DEN 4.4 5.7 1.0
19 Talen Horton-Tucker CHI 4.2 1.9 1.2
20 Zeke Nnaji DEN 4.1 2.5 0.8
21 Dario Saric DEN 4.0 2.8 1.5
22 Hunter Tyson DEN 3.8 1.7 0.7
23 Vlatko Cancar DEN 2.9 2.3 0.9
24 PJ Hall DEN 2.9 2.0 0.6
25 Spencer Jones DEN 2.8 1.7 0.6
26 Trey Alexander DEN 1.4 0.8 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.