NBA games

PHI @ NO

NBA Smoothie King Center ·Final
99–112
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHI2326262499
NO29293222112

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NO) / 10 (PHI) games this season
PHI away
home NO
49% 51%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jared Butler S 33 19 2 2
Justin Edwards S 35 19 3 2
Chuma Okeke S 33 12 9 4
Jeff Dowtin Jr. 22 12 1 2
Guerschon Yabusele S 29 12 7 4
Jalen Hood-Schifino 19 9 0 0
Ricky Council IV S 32 8 6 4
Adem Bona 19 6 7 1
Marcus Bagley 18 2 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Karlo Matkovic 23 19 8 3
Antonio Reeves 24 17 2 1
Yves Missi S 26 16 9 2
Kelly Olynyk S 30 14 11 7
Keion Brooks Jr. S 28 10 2 1
Jose Alvarado S 28 9 3 6
Jordan Hawkins S 24 9 5 1
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl 20 7 5 1
Elfrid Payton 25 6 6 14
Lester Quinones 11 5 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jordan Hawkins · Layup (2 pts) · 11:31 Q1
"Jordan Hawkins makes 1-foot two point shot (Kelly Olynyk assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Tyrese Maxey PHI
10%
2 Quentin Grimes PHI
10%
3 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI
9%
4 Yves Missi NO
8%
5 Justin Edwards PHI
8%
6 Jeff Dowtin Jr. PHI
7%
7 Adem Bona PHI
7%
8 CJ McCollum NO
7%
9 Karlo Matkovic NO
7%
10 Kelly Olynyk NO
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
18%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
14%
Jumper
42%
Layup
21%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Quentin Grimes PHI 27.7 4.9 6.2
2 Tyrese Maxey PHI 20.4 3.0 5.9
3 CJ McCollum NO 20.3 4.4 5.8
4 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 18.9 3.8 2.0
5 Justin Edwards PHI 14.9 3.9 2.2
6 Jeff Dowtin Jr. PHI 13.8 3.3 2.6
7 Kelly Olynyk NO 13.6 5.7 4.5
8 Yves Missi NO 12.0 8.4 1.6
9 Jordan Hawkins NO 11.9 3.6 1.7
10 Guerschon Yabusele PHI 11.7 5.7 2.4
11 Ricky Council IV PHI 11.7 4.0 1.8
12 Jose Alvarado NO 11.7 2.8 5.9
13 Jared Butler PHI 11.6 2.9 5.2
14 Karlo Matkovic NO 10.4 7.2 1.6
15 Oshae Brissett PHI 10.2 3.8 1.3
16 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl NO 7.9 3.9 1.7
17 Jalen Hood-Schifino PHI 6.8 2.3 2.8
18 Adem Bona PHI 6.1 4.5 0.6
19 Antonio Reeves NO 5.6 1.8 1.0
20 Chuma Okeke PHI 5.4 3.5 1.2
21 Lester Quinones NO 5.0 2.2 0.9
22 Mo Bamba NO 4.6 4.9 0.6
23 Elfrid Payton NO 4.6 2.8 3.3
24 Keion Brooks Jr. NO 4.4 2.5 0.9
25 Jamal Cain NO 4.2 1.9 0.9

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.