NBA games

TOR @ WSH

NBA Capital One Arena ·Final
112–104
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
TOR28242634112
WSH32182628104

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (WSH) / 10 (TOR) games this season
TOR away
home WSH
55% 45%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jakob Poeltl S 26 21 11 1
Immanuel Quickley S 26 21 4 7
Jamal Shead 20 14 2 3
Scottie Barnes S 28 13 10 8
Jamison Battle S 27 11 3 0
Ochai Agbaji S 30 9 4 3
A.J. Lawson 23 8 2 2
Jonathan Mogbo 24 8 11 2
Colin Castleton 18 5 6 1
Orlando Robinson 19 2 7 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jordan Poole S 22 23 1 1
AJ Johnson 28 17 6 3
Alex Sarr S 32 16 5 2
Bub Carrington S 31 15 11 6
Tristan Vukcevic 24 11 4 1
Khris Middleton S 22 9 2 5
Marcus Smart 12 6 2 1
JT Thor 16 5 3 0
Colby Jones 27 2 4 2
Jaylen Martin 4 0 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Alex Sarr · 3PT (3 pts) · 10:52 Q1
"Alex Sarr makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jordan Poole assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Scottie Barnes TOR
12%
2 Alex Sarr WSH
10%
3 RJ Barrett TOR
10%
4 Immanuel Quickley TOR
9%
5 Jakob Poeltl TOR
9%
6 Jordan Poole WSH
7%
7 Kyshawn George WSH
7%
8 Colin Castleton TOR
7%
9 Bub Carrington WSH
6%
10 Khris Middleton WSH
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
9%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
15%
Jumper
36%
Layup
33%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 RJ Barrett TOR 22.6 6.4 6.3
2 Immanuel Quickley TOR 21.4 4.6 6.1
3 Scottie Barnes TOR 20.8 8.7 5.4
4 Jordan Poole WSH 20.0 3.5 4.0
5 Alex Sarr WSH 19.5 7.6 3.1
6 Jakob Poeltl TOR 14.3 7.5 3.1
7 Kyshawn George WSH 14.1 5.8 3.6
8 A.J. Lawson TOR 12.3 4.3 1.8
9 Khris Middleton WSH 12.3 4.1 3.5
10 Orlando Robinson TOR 11.9 7.8 2.7
11 Marcus Smart WSH 11.0 2.7 3.2
12 Jamal Shead TOR 10.7 3.0 5.2
13 Bub Carrington WSH 10.5 3.8 4.7
14 Richaun Holmes WSH 10.2 7.8 1.9
15 Jamison Battle TOR 10.0 3.9 1.3
16 Ochai Agbaji TOR 9.5 3.8 1.4
17 Justin Champagnie WSH 9.3 6.0 1.5
18 Tristan Vukcevic WSH 9.2 4.7 1.3
19 Ja'Kobe Walter TOR 9.0 4.0 1.6
20 Colin Castleton TOR 8.5 7.6 1.9
21 AJ Johnson WSH 7.1 2.3 3.0
22 Jonathan Mogbo TOR 6.4 4.8 1.7
23 Anthony Gill WSH 4.8 1.9 0.9
24 Colby Jones WSH 4.5 2.3 1.2
25 Garrett Temple TOR 4.2 1.9 1.7
26 Jaylen Martin WSH 4.0 2.2 0.8
27 JT Thor WSH 3.0 1.5 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.