NBA games

LAL @ ORL

NBA Kia Center ·Final
106–118
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAL30301828106
ORL26323426118

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ORL) / 10 (LAL) games this season
LAL away
home ORL
28% 72%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Luka Doncic S 38 32 7 7
LeBron James S 38 24 6 7
Austin Reaves S 36 18 6 4
Dorian Finney-Smith S 35 14 7 0
Rui Hachimura 24 5 3 0
Jaxson Hayes S 18 4 4 0
Gabe Vincent 20 4 1 0
Dalton Knecht 5 3 0 0
Jordan Goodwin 13 1 1 0
Jarred Vanderbilt 12 1 4 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Franz Wagner S 38 32 5 9
Paolo Banchero S 40 30 7 1
Anthony Black 30 17 5 6
Wendell Carter Jr. S 32 12 8 0
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 34 9 4 3
Caleb Houstan 17 8 2 1
Cory Joseph S 17 5 4 5
Tristan da Silva 7 2 1 0
Jonathan Isaac 9 2 2 0
Gary Harris 7 1 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Paolo Banchero · Layup (2 pts) · 11:18 Q1
"Paolo Banchero makes two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Paolo Banchero ORL
25%
2 LeBron James LAL
12%
3 Franz Wagner ORL
11%
4 Austin Reaves LAL
10%
5 Jaxson Hayes LAL
9%
6 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
7%
7 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ORL
7%
8 Luka Doncic LAL
6%
9 Cory Joseph ORL
6%
10 Dorian Finney-Smith LAL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
7%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
77%
Jumper
6%
Layup
8%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic LAL 29.5 8.8 8.6
2 Paolo Banchero ORL 29.3 7.6 5.3
3 LeBron James LAL 27.0 10.4 5.9
4 Franz Wagner ORL 23.2 6.1 4.6
5 Austin Reaves LAL 21.8 5.0 5.3
6 Rui Hachimura LAL 13.7 5.2 1.6
7 Dalton Knecht LAL 11.4 3.5 1.6
8 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 10.7 6.9 1.8
9 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ORL 10.6 3.0 1.9
10 Jaxson Hayes LAL 10.1 6.7 1.4
11 Gabe Vincent LAL 9.2 1.8 1.4
12 Dorian Finney-Smith LAL 9.0 3.6 1.3
13 Jordan Goodwin LAL 8.5 4.5 1.8
14 Anthony Black ORL 8.5 3.0 2.4
15 Cory Joseph ORL 6.1 2.0 1.7
16 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL 5.9 4.2 1.4
17 Tristan da Silva ORL 4.9 2.3 1.1
18 Shake Milton LAL 4.4 1.9 1.0
19 Markieff Morris LAL 4.2 1.7 1.1
20 Caleb Houstan ORL 4.2 1.2 0.7
21 Goga Bitadze ORL 4.0 2.8 1.2
22 Jonathan Isaac ORL 3.8 3.0 0.7
23 Trey Jemison III LAL 3.5 2.8 0.4
24 Jett Howard ORL 3.2 1.3 0.9
25 Gary Harris ORL 3.1 1.7 0.7
26 Alex Len LAL 2.9 2.9 0.7
27 Cam Reddish LAL 2.8 1.7 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.