NBA games

MIN @ IND

NBA Gainbridge Fieldhouse ·Final
103–119
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIN23252530103
IND25294124119

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (IND) / 10 (MIN) games this season
MIN away
home IND
55% 45%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Naz Reid 26 20 3 2
Anthony Edwards S 34 17 2 4
Rudy Gobert S 35 16 16 3
Donte DiVincenzo 23 9 9 4
Julius Randle S 24 9 6 2
Mike Conley S 22 7 4 5
Jaylen Clark 19 6 2 1
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 24 6 2 2
Jaden McDaniels S 22 6 1 1
Josh Minott 3 5 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyrese Haliburton S 29 24 4 11
Obi Toppin 24 20 1 1
Aaron Nesmith S 24 17 7 1
Pascal Siakam S 31 14 6 4
Bennedict Mathurin 22 11 6 2
T.J. McConnell 17 10 5 4
Myles Turner S 29 7 9 1
Andrew Nembhard S 33 6 3 5
Thomas Bryant 10 6 2 0
Jarace Walker 2 2 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Pascal Siakam · Jumper (2 pts) · 10:40 Q1
"Pascal Siakam makes 19-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Pascal Siakam IND
11%
2 Julius Randle MIN
11%
3 Myles Turner IND
11%
4 Jaden McDaniels MIN
11%
5 Tyrese Haliburton IND
11%
6 Rudy Gobert MIN
10%
7 Anthony Edwards MIN
9%
8 Aaron Nesmith IND
8%
9 Andrew Nembhard IND
8%
10 Joe Ingles MIN
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
16%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
23%
Jumper
32%
Layup
23%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Edwards MIN 25.0 4.7 4.6
2 Pascal Siakam IND 23.8 5.8 4.3
3 Tyrese Haliburton IND 22.0 4.0 10.4
4 Julius Randle MIN 20.1 6.5 5.9
5 Jaden McDaniels MIN 16.4 6.4 2.8
6 Bennedict Mathurin IND 15.9 4.9 2.1
7 Myles Turner IND 15.5 6.3 1.7
8 Naz Reid MIN 14.5 6.2 2.9
9 Aaron Nesmith IND 14.3 4.0 1.8
10 Donte DiVincenzo MIN 13.3 4.0 3.8
11 Rudy Gobert MIN 11.8 10.2 1.7
12 Andrew Nembhard IND 11.2 3.0 5.3
13 Obi Toppin IND 10.3 3.8 1.6
14 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 9.4 3.8 2.1
15 Mike Conley MIN 8.9 2.6 3.7
16 T.J. McConnell IND 7.0 2.2 4.1
17 Thomas Bryant IND 5.5 3.6 0.6
18 Jarace Walker IND 4.8 1.6 1.0
19 Ben Sheppard IND 4.8 3.2 1.4
20 Bones Hyland MIN 4.7 1.4 1.6
21 Luka Garza MIN 4.3 1.5 0.7
22 Jaylen Clark MIN 4.0 1.4 0.8
23 Terrence Shannon Jr. MIN 3.6 1.5 0.9
24 Rob Dillingham MIN 3.6 1.4 1.3
25 Joe Ingles MIN 2.9 1.3 1.4
26 Tony Bradley IND 2.5 1.7 0.3
27 Josh Minott MIN 2.3 1.4 0.6
28 Quenton Jackson IND 2.3 0.9 0.7
29 Johnny Furphy IND 1.1 1.2 0.2
30 James Johnson IND 1.0 0.7 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.