NBA games

OKC @ LAC

NBA Intuit Dome ·Final
103–101
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
OKC24332422103
LAC34172624101

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAC) / 10 (OKC) games this season
OKC away
home LAC
68% 32%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 37 26 3 8
Aaron Wiggins 26 19 3 1
Isaiah Hartenstein S 33 14 10 6
Alex Caruso S 31 14 6 5
Jaylin Williams 15 12 7 2
Luguentz Dort S 29 10 4 2
Cason Wallace S 30 8 4 2
Isaiah Joe 20 0 2 0
Kenrich Williams 19 0 3 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kawhi Leonard S 40 25 10 3
James Harden S 35 17 5 8
Ivica Zubac S 33 15 11 3
Derrick Jones Jr. 26 9 4 1
Norman Powell S 31 9 4 1
Amir Coffey 14 9 1 0
Ben Simmons 15 8 7 0
Kris Dunn S 19 7 3 1
Bogdan Bogdanovic 21 2 3 3
Nicolas Batum 5 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Isaiah Hartenstein · Dunk (2 pts) · 10:37 Q1
"Isaiah Hartenstein makes dunk (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Kawhi Leonard LAC
15%
2 Ivica Zubac LAC
14%
3 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
13%
4 Norman Powell LAC
11%
5 James Harden LAC
9%
6 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC
9%
7 Aaron Wiggins OKC
8%
8 Luguentz Dort OKC
8%
9 Cason Wallace OKC
7%
10 Kris Dunn LAC
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
18%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
14%
Jumper
44%
Layup
20%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 31.5 4.0 8.5
2 James Harden LAC 26.4 5.9 9.2
3 Kawhi Leonard LAC 23.5 6.4 3.7
4 Ivica Zubac LAC 22.1 11.2 2.9
5 Norman Powell LAC 17.9 3.0 2.5
6 Bogdan Bogdanovic LAC 15.3 4.5 3.6
7 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC 13.3 9.8 3.6
8 Cason Wallace OKC 12.3 3.6 3.2
9 Aaron Wiggins OKC 11.9 3.9 2.3
10 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC 10.9 3.4 1.0
11 Isaiah Joe OKC 10.4 2.8 2.2
12 Luguentz Dort OKC 8.9 3.7 1.4
13 Amir Coffey LAC 8.1 2.0 1.1
14 Alex Caruso OKC 7.6 2.5 1.8
15 Jaylin Williams OKC 7.5 5.4 2.6
16 Kris Dunn LAC 7.3 2.8 2.7
17 Nicolas Batum LAC 7.1 3.8 1.4
18 Kenrich Williams OKC 6.2 3.3 1.2
19 Ben Simmons LAC 5.2 3.7 3.5
20 Branden Carlson OKC 4.3 2.1 0.7
21 Drew Eubanks LAC 3.5 2.9 0.6
22 Dillon Jones OKC 3.3 2.0 1.1
23 Adam Flagler OKC 3.0 1.4 0.9
24 Kobe Brown LAC 2.5 1.3 0.6
25 Patty Mills LAC 1.8 0.7 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.