NBA games

DEN @ HOU

NBA Toyota Center (Houston) ·Final
116–111
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DEN27303920116
HOU27302232111

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (HOU) / 10 (DEN) games this season
DEN away
home HOU
19% 81%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jamal Murray S 38 39 4 7
Michael Porter Jr. S 32 17 9 2
Russell Westbrook 24 14 2 1
Aaron Gordon S 37 13 4 8
DeAndre Jordan S 38 11 15 4
Christian Braun S 34 11 4 2
Peyton Watson 21 9 5 3
Zeke Nnaji 12 2 0 1
Jalen Pickett 3 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Green S 36 30 2 5
Dillon Brooks S 37 21 3 1
Alperen Sengun S 40 17 14 10
Steven Adams 22 14 12 2
Amen Thompson S 32 11 6 1
Jabari Smith Jr. 17 7 3 0
Fred VanVleet S 42 7 3 5
Tari Eason 15 4 2 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Dillon Brooks · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:13 Q1
"Dillon Brooks makes 25-foot three point jumper (Alperen Sengun assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Alperen Sengun HOU
14%
2 Amen Thompson HOU
12%
3 Jalen Green HOU
12%
4 Aaron Gordon DEN
11%
5 Jamal Murray DEN
10%
6 Christian Braun DEN
10%
7 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
10%
8 Russell Westbrook DEN
8%
9 Dillon Brooks HOU
8%
10 Fred VanVleet HOU
5%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
7%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
26%
Jumper
27%
Layup
31%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jamal Murray DEN 22.5 3.9 5.8
2 Alperen Sengun HOU 21.5 10.6 6.0
3 Jalen Green HOU 21.2 5.8 5.5
4 Aaron Gordon DEN 20.4 5.0 2.8
5 Russell Westbrook DEN 18.0 5.8 6.4
6 Amen Thompson HOU 17.7 9.4 5.1
7 Tari Eason HOU 17.4 6.9 2.8
8 Dillon Brooks HOU 17.0 3.7 2.9
9 Christian Braun DEN 16.4 4.1 3.6
10 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 16.0 6.1 1.9
11 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 15.0 7.0 2.0
12 Fred VanVleet HOU 13.2 3.7 4.6
13 Peyton Watson DEN 7.0 2.9 1.2
14 Aaron Holiday HOU 5.9 1.4 1.2
15 Steven Adams HOU 5.8 6.5 2.0
16 Jalen Pickett DEN 5.0 1.5 1.9
17 Zeke Nnaji DEN 4.4 2.6 0.7
18 Cam Whitmore HOU 4.3 1.6 0.9
19 Reed Sheppard HOU 4.0 1.2 1.2
20 Jock Landale HOU 3.8 2.4 0.5
21 Hunter Tyson DEN 3.6 1.5 0.6
22 Dario Saric DEN 3.5 2.6 1.4
23 Jeff Green HOU 3.5 1.8 0.6
24 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 3.1 2.4 0.7
25 Vlatko Cancar DEN 2.8 2.2 0.8
26 PJ Hall DEN 2.8 1.7 0.5
27 Spencer Jones DEN 2.6 1.4 0.4
28 DeAndre Jordan DEN 2.0 4.0 0.4
29 Trey Alexander DEN 1.1 0.6 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.