NBA games

BOS @ POR

NBA Moda Center ·Final
129116
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BOS34303827129
POR24273926116

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (POR) / 10 (BOS) games this season
BOS away
home POR
44% 56%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jayson Tatum S 37 30 9 9
Sam Hauser S 39 24 3 0
Derrick White S 37 17 3 8
Payton Pritchard S 32 16 4 5
Al Horford S 30 14 6 1
Luke Kornet 19 13 5 3
Baylor Scheierman 26 6 5 3
Torrey Craig 13 5 2 1
JD Davison 8 4 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shaedon Sharpe S 38 23 6 4
Toumani Camara S 36 19 7 3
Deni Avdija S 39 17 11 4
Anfernee Simons S 31 15 3 5
Matisse Thybulle 19 12 3 0
Scoot Henderson 23 9 0 6
Jabari Walker 5 6 2 0
Duop Reath 17 6 3 0
Dalano Banton 9 5 1 1
Donovan Clingan S 20 4 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Payton Pritchard · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:27 Q1
"Payton Pritchard makes 25-foot three point shot (Jayson Tatum assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anfernee Simons POR
13%
2 Shaedon Sharpe POR
10%
3 Kristaps Porzingis BOS
10%
4 Scoot Henderson POR
9%
5 Deni Avdija POR
8%
6 Jerami Grant POR
8%
7 Donovan Clingan POR
8%
8 Toumani Camara POR
7%
9 Kris Murray POR
7%
10 Derrick White BOS
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
34%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
25%
Layup
26%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jayson Tatum BOS 27.8 8.1 6.9
2 Deni Avdija POR 23.1 9.0 5.4
3 Anfernee Simons POR 22.8 3.2 3.7
4 Kristaps Porzingis BOS 20.3 6.7 2.4
5 Shaedon Sharpe POR 19.2 6.0 3.5
6 Derrick White BOS 18.6 4.5 5.1
7 Payton Pritchard BOS 15.0 3.6 2.7
8 Scoot Henderson POR 14.7 3.7 3.9
9 Toumani Camara POR 12.9 4.8 2.8
10 Al Horford BOS 10.8 7.3 2.9
11 Jerami Grant POR 10.7 3.4 1.9
12 Sam Hauser BOS 9.3 3.5 1.0
13 Duop Reath POR 7.9 4.0 1.4
14 Donovan Clingan POR 7.8 8.8 1.6
15 Luke Kornet BOS 6.2 5.2 1.3
16 Dalano Banton POR 5.5 2.3 1.4
17 Kris Murray POR 5.4 3.6 1.2
18 Neemias Queta BOS 5.1 4.8 0.9
19 Jabari Walker POR 5.1 3.2 0.8
20 Matisse Thybulle POR 4.5 3.5 1.1
21 Baylor Scheierman BOS 4.3 1.7 0.8
22 Torrey Craig BOS 3.8 2.0 0.6
23 JD Davison BOS 3.5 1.3 0.6
24 Drew Peterson BOS 3.3 1.6 0.8
25 Jordan Walsh BOS 3.1 2.1 0.8
26 Rayan Rupert POR 2.4 1.2 0.5
27 Justin Minaya POR 2.3 1.1 0.5
28 Bryce McGowens POR 2.3 1.0 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.