NBA games

SA @ TOR

NBA Scotiabank Arena ·Final
123–89
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SA36263526123
TOR1624232689

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (TOR) / 10 (SA) games this season
SA away
home TOR
62% 38%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Devin Vassell S 30 25 6 3
Julian Champagnie 23 20 5 2
Stephon Castle S 20 15 5 1
Sandro Mamukelashvili 16 13 7 1
Harrison Barnes S 20 10 3 0
Jeremy Sochan 20 9 5 2
Bismack Biyombo S 23 8 9 3
Blake Wesley 26 8 1 4
Keldon Johnson 19 7 2 3
Malaki Branham 10 4 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Scottie Barnes S 30 22 6 6
RJ Barrett S 30 18 7 2
Jamal Shead S 27 17 2 6
Ja'Kobe Walter 25 10 3 4
Jonathan Mogbo 27 6 10 4
Jamison Battle 22 5 1 1
Orlando Robinson 23 5 6 0
Colin Castleton S 24 4 4 1
Ochai Agbaji S 30 2 7 3
Garrett Temple 3 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Stephon Castle · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:42 Q1
"Stephon Castle makes 27-foot three point jumper (Bismack Biyombo assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Scottie Barnes TOR
13%
2 Jakob Poeltl TOR
10%
3 Immanuel Quickley TOR
10%
4 RJ Barrett TOR
10%
5 Stephon Castle SA
9%
6 Harrison Barnes SA
8%
7 Jonathan Mogbo TOR
7%
8 Jeremy Sochan SA
7%
9 Ja'Kobe Walter TOR
7%
10 Ochai Agbaji TOR
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
8%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
27%
Jumper
27%
Layup
30%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 RJ Barrett TOR 23.2 5.8 6.2
2 Immanuel Quickley TOR 21.5 4.5 6.3
3 Scottie Barnes TOR 21.3 8.4 5.6
4 Stephon Castle SA 20.9 4.4 5.1
5 Devin Vassell SA 19.9 5.6 3.5
6 Keldon Johnson SA 15.3 5.6 2.0
7 Jakob Poeltl TOR 14.6 7.1 3.3
8 Harrison Barnes SA 13.6 3.4 1.7
9 Jeremy Sochan SA 13.5 5.3 2.5
10 Orlando Robinson TOR 12.6 7.7 2.8
11 Jamal Shead TOR 10.7 2.9 5.2
12 Chris Paul SA 10.2 3.1 6.0
13 Ochai Agbaji TOR 10.2 3.6 1.5
14 Jamison Battle TOR 9.9 3.8 1.2
15 Colin Castleton TOR 8.2 6.6 1.9
16 Sandro Mamukelashvili SA 7.9 3.6 1.1
17 Ja'Kobe Walter TOR 7.7 3.5 1.1
18 Julian Champagnie SA 6.8 3.1 1.4
19 Jonathan Mogbo TOR 6.6 4.0 1.8
20 Chris Boucher TOR 6.5 3.8 0.9
21 Bismack Biyombo SA 5.1 4.8 1.3
22 Blake Wesley SA 4.7 1.5 1.8
23 Garrett Temple TOR 4.3 1.9 1.8
24 Jordan McLaughlin SA 1.6 0.6 0.8
25 Malaki Branham SA 1.6 0.8 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.