NBA games

CHA @ MIA

NBA Kaseya Center ·Final
105–122
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHA26212830105
MIA20373926122

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIA) / 10 (CHA) games this season
CHA away
home MIA
62% 38%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nick Smith Jr. S 38 19 3 3
LaMelo Ball S 34 18 3 11
Miles Bridges S 34 17 13 4
Mark Williams S 28 14 5 1
Seth Curry 15 10 0 0
Tidjane Salaun 25 7 5 1
DaQuan Jeffries S 23 7 3 0
Moussa Diabate 5 6 2 0
Jusuf Nurkic 15 5 3 2
KJ Simpson 22 2 3 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Andrew Wiggins S 35 42 3 5
Tyler Herro S 40 29 6 3
Kel'el Ware S 28 12 8 5
Davion Mitchell 36 12 3 7
Bam Adebayo S 32 11 4 2
Haywood Highsmith 36 7 6 2
Alec Burks 8 6 0 0
Duncan Robinson S 19 3 2 2
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 6 0 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
DaQuan Jeffries · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:36 Q1
"DaQuan Jeffries makes 8-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Mark Williams CHA
11%
2 LaMelo Ball CHA
11%
3 Miles Bridges CHA
10%
4 Tyler Herro MIA
10%
5 Andrew Wiggins MIA
9%
6 Bam Adebayo MIA
8%
7 Kel'el Ware MIA
7%
8 Jusuf Nurkic CHA
7%
9 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA
7%
10 KJ Simpson CHA
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
20%
Free Throw
15%
Jumper
34%
Layup
29%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Miles Bridges CHA 25.1 7.7 4.6
2 Tyler Herro MIA 22.4 4.7 5.2
3 Bam Adebayo MIA 22.3 8.8 5.0
4 Andrew Wiggins MIA 22.2 4.5 3.4
5 LaMelo Ball CHA 22.0 5.0 7.6
6 Mark Williams CHA 17.5 11.5 3.3
7 Nick Smith Jr. CHA 12.6 2.9 2.8
8 KJ Simpson CHA 12.2 3.9 4.4
9 Grant Williams CHA 12.2 6.1 2.0
10 Nikola Jovic MIA 11.5 3.2 3.0
11 Duncan Robinson MIA 11.3 2.1 1.8
12 Kel'el Ware MIA 11.2 8.9 1.3
13 Davion Mitchell MIA 10.3 3.2 4.7
14 DaQuan Jeffries CHA 10.1 3.1 1.3
15 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 7.6 4.1 2.1
16 Marcus Garrett CHA 6.9 1.9 2.8
17 Haywood Highsmith MIA 6.9 3.0 2.0
18 Jusuf Nurkic CHA 6.7 5.7 1.3
19 Terry Rozier MIA 6.6 2.2 1.7
20 Alec Burks MIA 6.4 2.8 1.5
21 Seth Curry CHA 6.0 1.8 1.3
22 Moussa Diabate CHA 5.5 4.5 1.1
23 Kyle Anderson MIA 4.9 2.6 1.8
24 Pelle Larsson MIA 4.8 1.5 1.1
25 Taj Gibson CHA 4.6 3.9 0.6
26 Tidjane Salaun CHA 4.4 2.9 0.9
27 Kevin Love MIA 4.2 3.3 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.