NBA games

PHI @ ATL

NBA State Farm Arena ·Final
119–132
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHI24283037119
ATL35294127132

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ATL) / 10 (PHI) games this season
PHI away
home ATL
26% 74%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Quentin Grimes S 35 26 5 6
Justin Edwards S 39 22 3 3
Jeff Dowtin Jr. S 26 17 4 3
Ricky Council IV 19 14 3 1
Guerschon Yabusele S 28 11 7 3
Chuma Okeke S 35 8 8 2
Jared Butler 22 8 0 5
Alex Reese 21 8 3 1
Oshae Brissett 15 5 4 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Trae Young S 33 28 1 12
Zaccharie Risacher S 27 22 2 2
Georges Niang 24 20 3 2
Onyeka Okongwu S 29 14 9 2
Dominick Barlow 19 13 10 2
Terance Mann 17 9 3 0
Dyson Daniels S 34 8 5 3
Caris LeVert 28 7 3 7
Mouhamed Gueye S 13 6 1 2
Vit Krejci 16 5 2 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Zaccharie Risacher · Layup (2 pts) · 11:37 Q1
"Zaccharie Risacher makes 1-foot layup (Trae Young assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Trae Young ATL
12%
2 Jalen Johnson ATL
10%
3 Tyrese Maxey PHI
9%
4 Dyson Daniels ATL
8%
5 Zaccharie Risacher ATL
8%
6 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI
7%
7 Quentin Grimes PHI
7%
8 Onyeka Okongwu ATL
7%
9 Adem Bona PHI
6%
10 Jared Butler PHI
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
16%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
24%
Jumper
45%
Layup
12%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Trae Young ATL 28.7 3.9 12.8
2 Quentin Grimes PHI 26.5 5.0 6.5
3 Tyrese Maxey PHI 20.3 2.9 5.9
4 Jalen Johnson ATL 19.1 10.7 4.8
5 Caris LeVert ATL 18.9 3.7 3.8
6 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 18.8 3.8 2.0
7 Dyson Daniels ATL 17.5 6.5 6.6
8 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 17.2 10.8 2.8
9 Zaccharie Risacher ATL 15.4 4.5 1.8
10 Justin Edwards PHI 13.2 3.6 1.9
11 Guerschon Yabusele PHI 12.6 5.7 2.7
12 Jared Butler PHI 12.6 3.1 5.4
13 Georges Niang ATL 11.9 3.4 2.2
14 Jeff Dowtin Jr. PHI 11.8 2.8 2.2
15 Terance Mann ATL 11.2 3.6 2.4
16 Oshae Brissett PHI 10.7 3.8 1.4
17 Ricky Council IV PHI 10.5 3.8 1.7
18 Vit Krejci ATL 8.5 3.6 3.2
19 Mouhamed Gueye ATL 6.5 3.9 1.2
20 Adem Bona PHI 6.0 4.7 0.6
21 Dominick Barlow ATL 6.0 3.4 1.0
22 Garrison Mathews ATL 4.8 2.3 0.8
23 Chuma Okeke PHI 4.7 2.9 1.0
24 Alex Reese PHI 4.6 2.9 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.