NBA games

NO @ DET

NBA Little Caesars Arena ·Final
130–136
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NO27323239130
DET36322543136

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DET) / 10 (NO) games this season
NO away
home DET
28% 72%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
CJ McCollum S 37 40 5 7
Jordan Hawkins 31 25 3 2
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl 32 13 6 8
Bruce Brown S 35 12 1 2
Kelly Olynyk S 25 10 5 8
Jose Alvarado S 28 10 4 8
Karlo Matkovic S 16 8 11 0
Keion Brooks Jr. 21 5 1 0
Jamal Cain 13 4 1 0
Antonio Reeves 3 3 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Ronald Holland II 36 26 5 6
Jalen Duren S 29 22 12 2
Marcus Sasser 26 20 1 2
Dennis Schroder S 35 16 1 5
Tobias Harris S 32 14 3 4
Malik Beasley S 29 13 4 2
Isaiah Stewart 19 9 3 2
Simone Fontecchio 19 8 2 1
Ausar Thompson S 9 5 1 1
Lindy Waters III 7 3 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jalen Duren · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:39 Q1
"Jalen Duren makes 5-foot two point shot (Malik Beasley assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Cade Cunningham DET
18%
2 Tobias Harris DET
14%
3 Jalen Duren DET
11%
4 Tim Hardaway Jr. DET
11%
5 Ausar Thompson DET
11%
6 CJ McCollum NO
9%
7 Kelly Olynyk NO
9%
8 Jose Alvarado NO
8%
9 Bruce Brown NO
8%
10 Malik Beasley DET
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
85%
Jumper
6%
Layup
6%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cade Cunningham DET 30.0 5.8 9.9
2 CJ McCollum NO 17.1 3.9 4.7
3 Tobias Harris DET 14.8 6.9 2.2
4 Jalen Duren DET 14.2 10.4 2.4
5 Malik Beasley DET 13.2 2.3 2.1
6 Kelly Olynyk NO 12.6 4.9 3.6
7 Dennis Schroder DET 12.4 2.8 5.0
8 Jose Alvarado NO 10.3 2.2 4.6
9 Tim Hardaway Jr. DET 10.0 3.3 1.5
10 Ausar Thompson DET 9.7 5.1 2.1
11 Jordan Hawkins NO 9.5 3.3 1.3
12 Karlo Matkovic NO 9.2 6.0 1.4
13 Bruce Brown NO 8.9 3.4 2.4
14 Simone Fontecchio DET 6.6 2.8 1.2
15 Isaiah Stewart DET 6.6 5.3 1.7
16 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl NO 6.1 3.3 1.0
17 Ronald Holland II DET 6.1 2.6 1.3
18 Antonio Reeves NO 4.4 1.3 0.8
19 Elfrid Payton NO 4.2 2.1 2.9
20 Marcus Sasser DET 3.9 0.8 1.6
21 Keion Brooks Jr. NO 3.1 2.2 0.8
22 Paul Reed DET 3.0 2.7 0.6
23 Lindy Waters III DET 2.2 0.8 0.6
24 Jamal Cain NO 1.6 0.6 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.