Saturday, March 22, 2025

CHI @ LAL

NBA crypto.com Arena ·Final

146–115

Final

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
CHI	32	33	39	42	146
LAL	31	31	27	26	115

Statlab take

baseline_gbm

Last 10 (LAL) / 10 (CHI) games this season

CHI away

home LAL

47% 53%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3PT	+/-
Coby White S	34	36	3	2	12/17	6/9	28
Matas Buzelis S	30	31	2	1	12/18	5/10	26
Josh Giddey S	33	15	10	17	5/11	1/2	22
Kevin Huerter S	34	14	3	2	6/12	0/4	16
Patrick Williams	23	14	3	3	5/8	4/7	16
Dalen Terry	24	13	4	4	6/12	1/4	8
Nikola Vucevic S	26	12	12	5	5/10	2/3	19
Zach Collins	18	9	3	4	4/4	0/0	10
Jevon Carter	4	2	1	0	1/1	0/0	4
Talen Horton-Tucker	3	0	0	0	0/1	0/0	4

Player	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3PT	+/-
Luka Doncic S	32	34	8	6	10/18	8/13	-9
Austin Reaves S	34	25	2	5	9/13	3/7	-21
LeBron James S	31	17	6	4	7/16	1/2	-27
Jaxson Hayes S	25	10	4	2	5/6	0/0	-17
Gabe Vincent	19	6	3	0	2/4	2/4	-5
Dalton Knecht	7	6	1	1	2/4	2/3	-8
Rui Hachimura	18	5	2	0	2/6	1/4	-4
Jordan Goodwin	15	4	3	1	1/3	0/1	-4
Shake Milton	7	2	1	1	1/3	0/1	-8
Bronny James	7	2	0	1	0/4	0/2	-8

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80

Trained on 67736 player-games

Actual

Nikola Vucevic · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:06 Q1

"Nikola Vucevic makes 25-foot three point shot (Josh Giddey assists)"

Most likely first scorer (top 10)

1 LeBron James LAL

13%

2 Luka Doncic LAL

10%

3 Coby White CHI

4 Nikola Vucevic CHI

5 Rui Hachimura LAL

6 Jaxson Hayes LAL

7 Austin Reaves LAL

8 Dalton Knecht LAL

9 Matas Buzelis CHI

10 Markieff Morris LAL

Method (given top scorer)

3PT

Dunk

Free Throw

45%

Jumper

24%

Layup

22%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)

#	Player	Team	Pred PTS	Pred REB	Pred AST	Actual PTS	Actual REB	Actual AST
1	Luka Doncic	LAL	29.6	8.0	9.3	34	8	6
2	LeBron James	LAL	27.4	10.3	6.8	17	6	4
3	Coby White	CHI	26.5	4.9	4.2	36	3	2
4	Josh Giddey	CHI	24.1	10.2	8.5	15	10	17
5	Austin Reaves	LAL	22.5	5.4	5.7	25	2	5
6	Nikola Vucevic	CHI	16.8	8.6	3.0	12	12	5
7	Kevin Huerter	CHI	15.2	4.2	2.9	14	3	2
8	Rui Hachimura	LAL	14.4	4.8	1.6	5	2	0
9	Dalton Knecht	LAL	13.7	3.8	2.0	6	1	1
10	Matas Buzelis	CHI	11.5	4.5	1.6	31	2	1
11	Jaxson Hayes	LAL	10.4	7.1	1.5	10	4	2
12	Gabe Vincent	LAL	10.0	1.7	1.8	6	3	0
13	Zach Collins	CHI	9.4	6.6	1.6	9	3	4
14	Dorian Finney-Smith	LAL	9.2	3.4	1.4	2	2	1
15	Jordan Goodwin	LAL	9.2	4.3	2.0	4	3	1
16	Patrick Williams	CHI	6.7	2.8	1.3	14	3	3
17	Julian Phillips	CHI	6.1	3.0	1.1	0	0	1
18	Jarred Vanderbilt	LAL	5.9	4.5	1.5	0	2	0
19	Jalen Smith	CHI	5.1	4.5	0.9	0	1	2
20	Dalen Terry	CHI	4.8	1.8	1.1	13	4	4
21	Bronny James	LAL	4.7	1.5	1.2	2	0	1
22	Shake Milton	LAL	4.4	1.9	1.1	2	1	1
23	Markieff Morris	LAL	4.2	1.6	1.2	2	0	1
24	Christian Koloko	LAL	3.5	2.8	0.9	—	—	—
25	Talen Horton-Tucker	CHI	3.1	1.3	0.8	0	0	0
26	Alex Len	LAL	3.1	2.7	0.9	0	1	0
27	Jevon Carter	CHI	3.0	0.9	1.2	2	1	0

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.