NBA games

MIL @ SAC

NBA Golden 1 Center ·Final
114–108
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIL17323728114
SAC25362819108

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SAC) / 10 (MIL) games this season
MIL away
home SAC
47% 53%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 35 32 17 3
Brook Lopez S 36 21 3 2
Kevin Porter Jr. 27 18 3 6
Taurean Prince S 25 15 1 2
Kyle Kuzma S 33 14 14 2
Gary Trent Jr. 36 11 0 0
AJ Green 26 3 2 3
Pat Connaughton 2 0 0 0
Ryan Rollins S 21 0 2 4
Player MIN PTS REB AST
DeMar DeRozan S 38 22 2 4
Keon Ellis S 37 20 9 6
Jonas Valanciunas S 27 18 7 1
Zach LaVine S 38 16 7 5
Keegan Murray S 33 13 9 1
Jake LaRavia 28 11 1 0
Trey Lyles 21 7 5 3
Devin Carter 10 1 3 0
Markelle Fultz 8 0 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Taurean Prince · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:36 Q1
"Taurean Prince makes 8-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
15%
2 DeMar DeRozan SAC
13%
3 Zach LaVine SAC
13%
4 Jonas Valanciunas SAC
11%
5 Kyle Kuzma MIL
11%
6 Taurean Prince MIL
9%
7 Brook Lopez MIL
9%
8 Keegan Murray SAC
8%
9 Ryan Rollins MIL
8%
10 Gary Trent Jr. MIL
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
47%
Jumper
15%
Layup
30%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 27.9 11.2 6.8
2 DeMar DeRozan SAC 24.4 4.1 6.1
3 Zach LaVine SAC 21.7 3.6 4.1
4 Kyle Kuzma MIL 14.0 4.9 1.9
5 Brook Lopez MIL 12.7 5.7 1.5
6 Gary Trent Jr. MIL 12.3 2.4 1.8
7 Keegan Murray SAC 12.2 5.7 1.9
8 Jonas Valanciunas SAC 10.9 9.8 2.9
9 Taurean Prince MIL 10.3 3.6 1.9
10 Kevin Porter Jr. MIL 9.6 3.7 3.4
11 Keon Ellis SAC 9.2 2.6 1.9
12 Jake LaRavia SAC 8.0 3.1 1.5
13 Trey Lyles SAC 7.9 5.1 2.0
14 AJ Green MIL 6.4 2.2 1.8
15 Ryan Rollins MIL 5.6 2.5 1.6
16 Devin Carter SAC 5.2 2.0 1.2
17 Pat Connaughton MIL 4.6 2.0 1.3
18 Jae Crowder SAC 3.9 2.1 0.7
19 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 3.7 1.7 0.8
20 Isaac Jones SAC 3.5 1.5 0.7
21 Tyler Smith MIL 3.4 1.6 0.7
22 Pete Nance MIL 3.2 1.5 0.7
23 Chris Livingston MIL 2.9 1.8 0.6
24 Terry Taylor SAC 2.5 1.1 0.9
25 Markelle Fultz SAC 2.4 0.9 0.8
26 Doug McDermott SAC 2.0 0.4 0.4
27 Mason Jones SAC 2.0 0.9 0.8
28 Isaiah Crawford SAC 1.6 0.8 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.