NBA games

WSH @ NY

NBA Madison Square Garden ·Final
103–122
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
WSH21203527103
NY31352630122

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NY) / 10 (WSH) games this season
WSH away
home NY
28% 72%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jordan Poole S 28 25 3 3
Marcus Smart 24 17 4 3
Kyshawn George S 28 15 10 4
AJ Johnson 28 9 2 3
Alex Sarr S 27 8 5 1
Justin Champagnie S 22 7 2 0
Colby Jones 12 6 4 2
Anthony Gill 12 4 1 0
Bub Carrington S 35 4 2 2
Tristan Vukcevic 4 4 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Karl-Anthony Towns S 37 31 11 1
Mikal Bridges S 38 27 6 4
OG Anunoby S 31 23 2 3
Cameron Payne S 30 13 4 7
Josh Hart S 38 9 12 2
Precious Achiuwa 12 4 5 2
Mitchell Robinson 17 4 5 1
Tyler Kolek 18 4 1 8
Landry Shamet 15 3 1 1
MarJon Beauchamp 3 2 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kyshawn George · Layup (2 pts) · 11:45 Q1
"Kyshawn George makes driving layup"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 OG Anunoby NY
16%
2 Mikal Bridges NY
14%
3 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
13%
4 Alex Sarr WSH
12%
5 Josh Hart NY
10%
6 Miles McBride NY
9%
7 Kyshawn George WSH
9%
8 Jordan Poole WSH
8%
9 Justin Champagnie WSH
8%
10 Bub Carrington WSH
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
34%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
13%
Jumper
27%
Layup
20%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 24.1 10.4 3.1
2 OG Anunoby NY 21.6 5.9 3.2
3 Mikal Bridges NY 20.3 4.5 5.7
4 Alex Sarr WSH 18.3 7.4 2.9
5 Jordan Poole WSH 18.0 3.5 3.6
6 Josh Hart NY 12.3 9.2 5.6
7 Kyshawn George WSH 12.2 5.0 3.5
8 Miles McBride NY 11.2 3.3 4.7
9 Bub Carrington WSH 10.7 3.9 4.9
10 Richaun Holmes WSH 9.5 7.3 1.7
11 Marcus Smart WSH 9.4 2.3 2.8
12 Justin Champagnie WSH 8.9 6.6 1.4
13 Tristan Vukcevic WSH 8.7 4.6 1.1
14 AJ Johnson WSH 7.2 2.3 2.9
15 Landry Shamet NY 6.4 2.0 1.0
16 Cameron Payne NY 6.3 1.8 2.6
17 Mitchell Robinson NY 5.5 5.7 0.7
18 Precious Achiuwa NY 5.1 4.1 0.8
19 Anthony Gill WSH 4.0 1.8 0.8
20 Jaylen Martin WSH 3.9 2.1 0.7
21 Colby Jones WSH 3.7 1.9 0.9
22 MarJon Beauchamp NY 3.6 1.8 1.0
23 Anton Watson NY 2.8 1.4 0.9
24 Tyler Kolek NY 2.7 1.1 0.9
25 Delon Wright NY 2.5 1.5 1.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.