NBA games

GS @ ATL

NBA State Farm Arena ·Final
115–124
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
GS23342434115
ATL40292926124

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ATL) / 10 (GS) games this season
GS away
home ATL
43% 57%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jimmy Butler III S 38 25 4 8
Moses Moody S 35 20 4 5
Brandin Podziemski S 36 19 8 4
Jonathan Kuminga 22 16 2 2
Gary Payton II 17 11 4 0
Quinten Post S 28 11 4 1
Buddy Hield 17 5 2 1
Draymond Green S 35 5 6 6
Trayce Jackson-Davis 5 3 3 1
Kevon Looney 5 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Trae Young S 35 25 5 10
Georges Niang 22 23 2 2
Onyeka Okongwu S 34 22 12 6
Zaccharie Risacher S 29 14 2 0
Caris LeVert 24 14 2 6
Dyson Daniels S 35 12 11 6
Terance Mann 19 5 3 0
Dominick Barlow 14 4 4 1
Vit Krejci 13 3 1 6
Mouhamed Gueye S 15 2 4 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Brandin Podziemski · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:28 Q1
"Brandin Podziemski makes 25-foot three point shot (Jimmy Butler III assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Trae Young ATL
14%
2 Dyson Daniels ATL
13%
3 Jimmy Butler III GS
13%
4 Jalen Johnson ATL
13%
5 Zaccharie Risacher ATL
11%
6 Onyeka Okongwu ATL
10%
7 Brandin Podziemski GS
7%
8 Draymond Green GS
7%
9 Moses Moody GS
6%
10 Mouhamed Gueye ATL
5%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
15%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
14%
Jumper
48%
Layup
18%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Trae Young ATL 25.8 3.6 10.8
2 Jimmy Butler III GS 20.2 6.6 7.2
3 Jonathan Kuminga GS 19.7 5.4 3.7
4 Jalen Johnson ATL 17.9 10.1 4.3
5 Caris LeVert ATL 16.5 3.5 2.6
6 Dyson Daniels ATL 15.9 5.9 5.6
7 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 15.3 10.2 2.0
8 Zaccharie Risacher ATL 14.2 4.8 1.5
9 Draymond Green GS 13.5 7.0 5.8
10 Brandin Podziemski GS 13.5 5.5 2.8
11 Moses Moody GS 11.6 3.8 2.0
12 Terance Mann ATL 11.1 3.5 2.3
13 Buddy Hield GS 10.7 3.4 2.4
14 Gary Payton II GS 10.6 3.7 1.6
15 Georges Niang ATL 9.3 3.2 1.6
16 Quinten Post GS 8.5 4.0 1.3
17 Vit Krejci ATL 8.4 3.5 2.3
18 Gui Santos GS 6.3 3.6 1.7
19 Mouhamed Gueye ATL 5.1 3.1 0.8
20 Dominick Barlow ATL 4.5 2.8 0.5
21 Garrison Mathews ATL 4.2 2.0 0.6
22 Kevon Looney GS 4.1 4.4 0.9
23 Pat Spencer GS 2.4 1.4 0.6
24 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 2.1 1.4 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.