NBA games

BKN @ IND

NBA Gainbridge Fieldhouse ·Final
103–108
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BKN25271833103
IND28332918108

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (IND) / 10 (BKN) games this season
BKN away
home IND
37% 63%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Trendon Watford 30 26 5 1
Cameron Johnson S 37 20 9 5
Keon Johnson S 33 17 4 1
Jalen Wilson S 23 13 6 0
Nic Claxton S 32 9 10 4
Tyrese Martin S 28 9 4 5
Noah Clowney 26 5 5 1
Maxwell Lewis 15 2 2 1
Day'Ron Sharpe 17 2 3 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Pascal Siakam S 34 26 3 6
Myles Turner S 32 22 8 0
Tyrese Haliburton S 32 16 8 12
Bennedict Mathurin 27 13 4 1
Obi Toppin 18 10 5 0
T.J. McConnell 14 8 4 4
Aaron Nesmith S 22 6 3 1
Andrew Nembhard S 35 5 4 7
Thomas Bryant 12 2 2 0
Jarace Walker 7 0 2 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Myles Turner · Dunk (2 pts) · 10:47 Q1
"Myles Turner makes 2-foot dunk (Andrew Nembhard assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Cam Thomas BKN
11%
2 Pascal Siakam IND
9%
3 Myles Turner IND
9%
4 Cameron Johnson BKN
9%
5 Nic Claxton BKN
8%
6 Aaron Nesmith IND
8%
7 Bennedict Mathurin IND
8%
8 D'Angelo Russell BKN
7%
9 Keon Johnson BKN
7%
10 Tyrese Haliburton IND
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
19%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
27%
Jumper
29%
Layup
22%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Pascal Siakam IND 24.0 6.1 4.2
2 Cam Thomas BKN 23.9 3.7 4.5
3 Tyrese Haliburton IND 22.7 4.2 12.0
4 Cameron Johnson BKN 19.3 5.0 4.3
5 Aaron Nesmith IND 16.7 4.3 2.0
6 Myles Turner IND 16.4 6.4 1.8
7 Bennedict Mathurin IND 16.1 5.0 2.3
8 D'Angelo Russell BKN 14.2 3.3 5.5
9 Ziaire Williams BKN 12.6 4.3 1.7
10 Andrew Nembhard IND 11.6 3.3 5.7
11 Obi Toppin IND 10.8 4.0 1.8
12 Nic Claxton BKN 10.6 8.4 2.8
13 Keon Johnson BKN 10.5 4.2 2.2
14 Tyrese Martin BKN 10.2 3.5 2.5
15 Trendon Watford BKN 9.2 3.8 3.5
16 Noah Clowney BKN 8.7 3.6 0.9
17 T.J. McConnell IND 7.4 2.3 4.5
18 Jalen Wilson BKN 6.7 1.9 1.3
19 Day'Ron Sharpe BKN 6.4 6.9 1.5
20 Thomas Bryant IND 6.0 3.9 0.7
21 Ben Sheppard IND 5.6 3.5 1.7
22 Jarace Walker IND 5.1 1.8 1.1
23 Maxwell Lewis BKN 4.3 1.8 0.7
24 Tony Bradley IND 3.6 2.3 0.6
25 Quenton Jackson IND 3.4 1.5 1.1
26 Johnny Furphy IND 1.3 1.4 0.3
27 James Johnson IND 1.3 0.8 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.