NBA games

MEM @ LAC

NBA Intuit Dome ·Final
108–128
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MEM31351626108
LAC29313632128

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAC) / 10 (MEM) games this season
MEM away
home LAC
18% 82%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 35 23 2 1
Santi Aldama S 32 16 5 7
Scotty Pippen Jr. S 27 15 3 5
Luke Kennard 30 15 2 4
Jay Huff 14 13 1 0
Desmond Bane S 33 10 5 4
Zach Edey 17 8 8 2
Vince Williams Jr. 23 5 8 3
Jaylen Wells S 15 3 3 2
Marvin Bagley III 1 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
James Harden S 36 30 4 9
Kawhi Leonard S 37 23 10 4
Ivica Zubac S 34 17 10 1
Bogdan Bogdanovic 26 16 3 5
Norman Powell S 27 14 3 3
Kris Dunn S 19 11 3 1
Amir Coffey 15 6 2 1
Derrick Jones Jr. 18 5 2 1
Nicolas Batum 12 5 2 2
Drew Eubanks 3 1 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Norman Powell · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:07 Q1
"Norman Powell makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Kawhi Leonard LAC
13%
2 Ivica Zubac LAC
13%
3 Norman Powell LAC
11%
4 Desmond Bane MEM
11%
5 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
11%
6 Zach Edey MEM
10%
7 James Harden LAC
10%
8 Luke Kennard MEM
7%
9 Kris Dunn LAC
7%
10 Jaylen Wells MEM
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
16%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
19%
Jumper
45%
Layup
16%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 James Harden LAC 25.5 5.7 9.2
2 Kawhi Leonard LAC 24.1 6.4 3.9
3 Desmond Bane MEM 23.6 7.7 6.1
4 Ivica Zubac LAC 22.4 11.6 3.4
5 Norman Powell LAC 20.4 3.4 2.6
6 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 19.0 4.6 2.1
7 Bogdan Bogdanovic LAC 15.7 4.8 3.4
8 Santi Aldama MEM 12.4 5.8 3.4
9 Scotty Pippen Jr. MEM 11.8 3.7 4.9
10 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC 11.7 3.5 1.1
11 Luke Kennard MEM 10.7 3.0 3.7
12 Zach Edey MEM 8.8 7.0 1.1
13 Kris Dunn LAC 7.9 3.3 3.4
14 Amir Coffey LAC 7.6 1.9 1.3
15 Nicolas Batum LAC 7.3 3.7 1.4
16 Jaylen Wells MEM 7.2 3.5 1.8
17 Vince Williams Jr. MEM 7.2 3.0 1.8
18 Ben Simmons LAC 5.3 4.0 4.3
19 Cam Spencer MEM 4.3 1.5 1.2
20 Marvin Bagley III MEM 4.2 2.9 0.6
21 Jay Huff MEM 3.9 1.9 0.7
22 John Konchar MEM 3.2 2.2 0.7
23 Drew Eubanks LAC 2.7 2.5 0.4
24 Patty Mills LAC 2.3 0.8 0.5
25 Kobe Brown LAC 1.8 1.0 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.