NBA games

DEN @ POR

NBA Moda Center ·Final
109–128
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DEN30292327109
POR30243440128

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (POR) / 10 (DEN) games this season
DEN away
home POR
51% 49%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Aaron Gordon S 32 23 3 4
Russell Westbrook S 30 18 4 4
Michael Porter Jr. S 29 17 5 3
Christian Braun S 33 15 5 2
Peyton Watson 27 12 5 0
Jamal Murray S 35 10 4 2
Jalen Pickett 23 5 0 5
PJ Hall 4 4 0 0
Hunter Tyson 4 3 3 1
Spencer Jones 6 2 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Deni Avdija S 38 36 8 7
Shaedon Sharpe S 39 23 6 2
Dalano Banton 29 19 3 5
Toumani Camara S 36 16 6 4
Scoot Henderson S 20 16 2 4
Duop Reath 32 12 7 4
Kris Murray S 21 3 3 2
Matisse Thybulle 17 3 3 1
Justin Minaya 2 0 0 0
Bryce McGowens 2 0 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Aaron Gordon · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:41 Q1
"Aaron Gordon makes 20-foot pullup jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Deandre Ayton POR
11%
2 Anfernee Simons POR
11%
3 Shaedon Sharpe POR
9%
4 Jamal Murray DEN
9%
5 Christian Braun DEN
8%
6 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
8%
7 Deni Avdija POR
7%
8 Russell Westbrook DEN
7%
9 Jerami Grant POR
7%
10 Donovan Clingan POR
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
12%
Free Throw
26%
Jumper
30%
Layup
31%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anfernee Simons POR 24.7 3.3 4.1
2 Jamal Murray DEN 23.4 3.9 6.2
3 Deni Avdija POR 23.1 9.8 5.7
4 Shaedon Sharpe POR 20.7 6.1 3.7
5 Aaron Gordon DEN 19.9 5.3 3.1
6 Deandre Ayton POR 18.6 10.9 2.5
7 Russell Westbrook DEN 17.6 5.9 6.5
8 Christian Braun DEN 17.3 4.4 3.7
9 Scoot Henderson POR 15.7 3.9 4.6
10 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 15.6 7.3 1.9
11 Toumani Camara POR 14.2 4.8 3.1
12 Jerami Grant POR 12.4 3.5 2.1
13 Donovan Clingan POR 8.6 9.5 1.9
14 Duop Reath POR 7.7 4.1 1.4
15 Peyton Watson DEN 6.8 3.0 1.4
16 Kris Murray POR 6.1 4.1 1.4
17 Matisse Thybulle POR 5.0 3.8 1.3
18 Zeke Nnaji DEN 4.8 2.8 0.6
19 Jalen Pickett DEN 4.8 1.6 1.6
20 Dalano Banton POR 4.4 1.9 1.4
21 Hunter Tyson DEN 3.8 1.7 0.7
22 Dario Saric DEN 3.8 2.8 1.4
23 Vlatko Cancar DEN 3.4 2.6 0.9
24 Spencer Jones DEN 2.8 1.7 0.5
25 PJ Hall DEN 2.7 2.0 0.5
26 Justin Minaya POR 2.5 1.2 0.6
27 Bryce McGowens POR 2.5 1.0 0.6
28 Rayan Rupert POR 2.5 1.3 0.6
29 DeAndre Jordan DEN 2.3 4.3 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.