NBA games

CLE @ PHX

NBA Mortgage Matchup Center ·Final
112–123
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CLE34172833112
PHX35273625123

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHX) / 10 (CLE) games this season
CLE away
home PHX
51% 49%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Darius Garland S 37 18 5 6
De'Andre Hunter 22 17 1 1
Evan Mobley S 31 16 12 5
Ty Jerome 19 16 1 5
Isaac Okoro 14 10 1 1
Max Strus S 23 9 4 1
Donovan Mitchell S 31 7 4 3
Jarrett Allen S 22 6 6 1
Dean Wade 16 6 0 0
Sam Merrill 18 4 7 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kevin Durant S 39 42 6 8
Devin Booker S 39 17 2 10
Tyus Jones 25 16 3 3
Royce O'Neale 21 15 5 2
Collin Gillespie S 24 13 2 4
Ryan Dunn S 26 10 9 1
Oso Ighodaro S 44 6 13 4
Cody Martin 22 4 6 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Evan Mobley · 3PT (3 pts) · 10:31 Q1
"Evan Mobley makes 25-foot three point jumper (Darius Garland assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Devin Booker PHX
14%
2 Donovan Mitchell CLE
14%
3 Evan Mobley CLE
12%
4 Jarrett Allen CLE
12%
5 Kevin Durant PHX
10%
6 Darius Garland CLE
9%
7 Collin Gillespie PHX
7%
8 Ryan Dunn PHX
7%
9 Dean Wade CLE
7%
10 Max Strus CLE
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
23%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
13%
Jumper
41%
Layup
20%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kevin Durant PHX 25.3 6.6 5.2
2 Devin Booker PHX 25.1 4.7 7.6
3 Donovan Mitchell CLE 24.7 4.5 5.7
4 Evan Mobley CLE 21.5 8.6 3.3
5 Darius Garland CLE 20.1 3.6 6.8
6 Jarrett Allen CLE 14.2 9.8 2.0
7 De'Andre Hunter CLE 13.4 4.1 1.7
8 Ty Jerome CLE 12.8 3.0 3.3
9 Max Strus CLE 11.9 4.4 2.8
10 Tyus Jones PHX 9.0 2.3 3.8
11 Royce O'Neale PHX 8.0 5.1 3.0
12 Ryan Dunn PHX 7.6 3.2 1.0
13 Bol Bol PHX 7.2 3.5 0.9
14 Sam Merrill CLE 6.4 2.1 1.2
15 Cody Martin PHX 6.1 3.6 1.8
16 Isaac Okoro CLE 5.6 2.1 1.0
17 Dean Wade CLE 5.5 2.8 1.0
18 Javonte Green CLE 4.8 2.4 0.9
19 Oso Ighodaro PHX 4.8 3.9 1.2
20 Collin Gillespie PHX 4.3 2.3 2.1
21 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 3.5 1.7 1.2
22 Damion Lee PHX 3.5 1.0 0.6
23 Monte Morris PHX 3.4 1.0 1.1
24 Tristan Thompson CLE 1.6 1.6 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.