NBA games

DET @ DAL

NBA American Airlines Center ·Final
117–123
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DET27272934117
DAL35253132123

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DAL) / 10 (DET) games this season
DET away
home DAL
83% 17%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cade Cunningham S 38 35 7 6
Malik Beasley 36 16 1 2
Jalen Duren S 27 14 9 3
Ronald Holland II 12 12 5 1
Dennis Schroder 31 11 3 4
Tobias Harris S 35 9 6 3
Isaiah Stewart 20 8 6 2
Ausar Thompson S 16 8 3 3
Simone Fontecchio 16 4 0 0
Tim Hardaway Jr. S 8 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Spencer Dinwiddie S 39 31 3 7
P.J. Washington S 38 27 3 0
Klay Thompson S 30 20 5 1
Naji Marshall S 36 19 11 5
Kai Jones S 25 10 7 3
Brandon Williams 18 7 3 5
Max Christie 24 5 8 2
Dwight Powell 19 4 3 2
Jaden Hardy 10 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Tobias Harris · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:30 Q1
"Tobias Harris makes 24-foot three point jumper (Ausar Thompson assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Cade Cunningham DET
10%
2 Tobias Harris DET
9%
3 Jalen Duren DET
9%
4 P.J. Washington DAL
8%
5 Spencer Dinwiddie DAL
8%
6 Dereck Lively II DAL
8%
7 Naji Marshall DAL
7%
8 Daniel Gafford DAL
7%
9 Klay Thompson DAL
7%
10 Ausar Thompson DET
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
9%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
40%
Jumper
27%
Layup
21%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cade Cunningham DET 28.4 6.2 9.6
2 Naji Marshall DAL 22.6 7.4 4.4
3 P.J. Washington DAL 18.6 7.9 2.9
4 Klay Thompson DAL 17.0 3.8 2.8
5 Tobias Harris DET 15.1 7.3 2.1
6 Spencer Dinwiddie DAL 15.0 3.3 4.9
7 Brandon Williams DAL 14.9 3.3 3.4
8 Jalen Duren DET 14.5 11.3 2.2
9 Malik Beasley DET 13.2 2.3 2.0
10 Daniel Gafford DAL 13.1 9.8 2.2
11 Dennis Schroder DET 11.4 2.8 4.9
12 Max Christie DAL 10.8 4.1 2.6
13 Ausar Thompson DET 10.6 5.6 2.0
14 Tim Hardaway Jr. DET 10.5 3.4 1.5
15 Dereck Lively II DAL 10.2 8.2 2.7
16 Jaden Hardy DAL 7.8 1.6 1.4
17 Isaiah Stewart DET 6.5 5.3 1.5
18 Simone Fontecchio DET 6.2 2.9 1.2
19 Caleb Martin DAL 6.0 2.9 1.9
20 Ronald Holland II DET 5.9 2.6 1.2
21 Kai Jones DAL 4.8 3.0 0.5
22 Marcus Sasser DET 4.0 0.9 1.7
23 Dwight Powell DAL 4.0 2.6 1.5
24 Paul Reed DET 3.1 2.9 0.6
25 Lindy Waters III DET 2.3 0.9 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.