NBA games

CHA @ OKC

NBA Paycom Center ·Final
106–141
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHA14352730106
OKC34323738141

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (OKC) / 10 (CHA) games this season
CHA away
home OKC
31% 69%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Miles Bridges S 26 20 3 4
Nick Smith Jr. 26 14 0 3
Josh Green S 25 12 1 2
Moussa Diabate 22 12 7 3
Seth Curry 22 11 0 2
DaQuan Jeffries S 24 11 0 1
KJ Simpson S 33 10 1 8
Wendell Moore Jr. 27 6 5 1
Jusuf Nurkic S 24 6 9 5
Taj Gibson 12 4 3 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 30 30 6 9
Chet Holmgren S 28 14 5 1
Jaylin Williams 23 14 5 4
Isaiah Joe 21 14 2 0
Isaiah Hartenstein S 25 12 10 4
Cason Wallace S 26 11 3 5
Aaron Wiggins S 27 11 2 1
Kenrich Williams 17 11 1 0
Alex Caruso 15 9 3 0
Adam Flagler 7 5 2 4

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander · Jumper (2 pts) · 10:48 Q1
"Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes 14-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
28%
2 Miles Bridges CHA
8%
3 Chet Holmgren OKC
8%
4 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC
7%
5 Aaron Wiggins OKC
6%
6 Dillon Jones OKC
6%
7 KJ Simpson CHA
6%
8 Cason Wallace OKC
5%
9 Jaylin Williams OKC
5%
10 Grant Williams CHA
5%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
7%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
25%
Jumper
51%
Layup
16%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 32.3 4.2 7.3
2 Miles Bridges CHA 25.0 7.9 4.8
3 Chet Holmgren OKC 16.6 8.4 2.1
4 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC 14.0 9.2 3.6
5 Cason Wallace OKC 12.8 3.8 3.0
6 Aaron Wiggins OKC 12.7 4.4 2.4
7 Grant Williams CHA 12.2 6.0 2.0
8 Nick Smith Jr. CHA 12.0 2.9 2.4
9 KJ Simpson CHA 10.1 3.1 3.4
10 DaQuan Jeffries CHA 9.6 3.2 1.3
11 Isaiah Joe OKC 9.4 2.8 2.2
12 Alex Caruso OKC 7.5 2.7 1.8
13 Jusuf Nurkic CHA 7.4 5.7 1.2
14 Josh Green CHA 7.0 2.8 2.1
15 Jaylin Williams OKC 6.9 5.5 2.5
16 Kenrich Williams OKC 6.3 3.6 1.7
17 Wendell Moore Jr. CHA 5.8 3.1 1.2
18 Seth Curry CHA 5.2 1.9 1.1
19 Moussa Diabate CHA 4.9 3.8 0.8
20 Branden Carlson OKC 4.6 2.3 0.8
21 Taj Gibson CHA 4.3 4.5 0.8
22 Dillon Jones OKC 3.7 2.1 1.4
23 Alex Ducas OKC 3.5 1.7 0.6
24 Adam Flagler OKC 3.3 1.4 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.