NBA games

HOU @ MIA

NBA Kaseya Center ·Final
102–98
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
HOU23282724102
MIA2732211898

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIA) / 10 (HOU) games this season
HOU away
home MIA
71% 29%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Fred VanVleet S 36 37 0 3
Amen Thompson S 35 18 9 5
Jabari Smith Jr. 22 11 6 0
Dillon Brooks S 34 11 1 0
Alperen Sengun S 34 8 10 2
Tari Eason 27 7 8 2
Jalen Green S 32 6 4 1
Steven Adams 21 4 8 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Andrew Wiggins S 30 30 2 3
Kel'el Ware S 35 16 14 1
Bam Adebayo S 38 16 6 6
Davion Mitchell 34 12 3 4
Haywood Highsmith 24 8 4 3
Tyler Herro S 39 8 3 4
Duncan Robinson 18 4 0 2
Jaime Jaquez Jr. S 15 4 2 2
Kevin Love 6 0 0 0
Alec Burks 4 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jalen Green · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:39 Q1
"Jalen Green makes dunk (Amen Thompson assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Tyler Herro MIA
13%
2 Amen Thompson HOU
9%
3 Alperen Sengun HOU
9%
4 Andrew Wiggins MIA
9%
5 Jalen Green HOU
8%
6 Bam Adebayo MIA
7%
7 Fred VanVleet HOU
7%
8 Tari Eason HOU
7%
9 Kel'el Ware MIA
6%
10 Dillon Brooks HOU
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
19%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
27%
Jumper
31%
Layup
18%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Alperen Sengun HOU 22.8 10.7 5.5
2 Tyler Herro MIA 21.8 4.6 5.3
3 Bam Adebayo MIA 21.7 9.7 4.9
4 Jalen Green HOU 21.6 6.0 5.4
5 Andrew Wiggins MIA 19.3 4.4 3.1
6 Dillon Brooks HOU 16.2 3.6 2.6
7 Tari Eason HOU 16.1 6.9 2.5
8 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 14.8 6.4 1.7
9 Amen Thompson HOU 13.7 9.0 4.2
10 Duncan Robinson MIA 11.7 2.3 1.7
11 Nikola Jovic MIA 10.8 3.1 2.9
12 Kel'el Ware MIA 10.2 7.9 1.2
13 Fred VanVleet HOU 9.8 3.9 4.4
14 Davion Mitchell MIA 9.7 3.0 4.6
15 Alec Burks MIA 7.0 3.3 1.4
16 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 6.8 3.7 1.9
17 Haywood Highsmith MIA 6.5 2.7 1.8
18 Aaron Holiday HOU 6.4 1.7 1.3
19 Terry Rozier MIA 6.4 2.1 1.7
20 Pelle Larsson MIA 5.0 1.5 1.1
21 Steven Adams HOU 4.9 5.9 1.6
22 Kyle Anderson MIA 4.6 2.5 1.7
23 Jeff Green HOU 4.1 2.1 0.7
24 Cam Whitmore HOU 3.9 1.6 0.7
25 Jock Landale HOU 3.5 2.4 0.4
26 Reed Sheppard HOU 3.5 1.2 1.0
27 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 2.8 2.5 0.6
28 Kevin Love MIA 2.8 2.5 0.5
29 Nate Williams HOU 2.6 0.9 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.