NBA games

ORL @ WSH

NBA Capital One Arena ·Final
120–105
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ORL33343518120
WSH30241734105

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (WSH) / 10 (ORL) games this season
ORL away
home WSH
58% 42%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Paolo Banchero S 31 30 8 5
Franz Wagner S 24 21 8 5
Wendell Carter Jr. S 29 16 12 1
Anthony Black 26 13 6 6
Cory Joseph S 22 11 2 1
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 28 11 5 1
Tristan da Silva 20 9 5 1
Caleb Houstan 21 6 5 2
Jett Howard 9 3 0 0
Goga Bitadze 7 0 1 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Alex Sarr S 28 19 10 2
Jordan Poole S 27 18 2 2
Tristan Vukcevic 21 17 6 3
AJ Johnson 23 14 2 3
Anthony Gill 22 10 5 1
Khris Middleton S 23 9 3 0
Kyshawn George S 28 7 4 8
Colby Jones 7 4 1 1
Justin Champagnie S 28 3 6 0
JT Thor 7 2 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Wendell Carter Jr. · Layup (2 pts) · 11:35 Q1
"Wendell Carter Jr. makes tip shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Alex Sarr WSH
11%
2 Paolo Banchero ORL
10%
3 Franz Wagner ORL
10%
4 Kyshawn George WSH
8%
5 Khris Middleton WSH
8%
6 Bub Carrington WSH
8%
7 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
8%
8 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ORL
8%
9 Tristan Vukcevic WSH
8%
10 Jordan Poole WSH
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
27%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
14%
Jumper
34%
Layup
21%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Paolo Banchero ORL 29.5 7.5 5.4
2 Franz Wagner ORL 23.9 5.6 4.7
3 Jordan Poole WSH 18.6 3.7 3.9
4 Alex Sarr WSH 18.1 6.7 3.0
5 Kyshawn George WSH 12.3 5.1 3.2
6 Khris Middleton WSH 11.6 4.2 3.7
7 Bub Carrington WSH 11.2 4.1 4.9
8 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ORL 11.0 2.9 2.0
9 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 10.8 7.3 2.1
10 Richaun Holmes WSH 9.6 7.3 1.8
11 Justin Champagnie WSH 8.6 6.4 1.5
12 Tristan Vukcevic WSH 8.4 4.3 1.0
13 Anthony Black ORL 7.8 2.9 2.0
14 AJ Johnson WSH 6.4 2.2 2.9
15 Cory Joseph ORL 6.2 1.9 1.8
16 Tristan da Silva ORL 5.2 2.2 1.1
17 Goga Bitadze ORL 5.1 3.1 1.2
18 Jonathan Isaac ORL 4.8 3.6 0.8
19 Caleb Houstan ORL 4.8 1.5 0.8
20 JT Thor WSH 4.1 1.9 0.7
21 Mac McClung ORL 4.0 1.8 1.3
22 Gary Harris ORL 3.8 2.0 0.8
23 Anthony Gill WSH 3.7 1.6 0.7
24 Colby Jones WSH 3.7 2.0 0.9
25 Jett Howard ORL 3.0 1.1 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.