NBA games

CHI @ SAC

NBA Golden 1 Center ·Final
128–116
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHI28273736128
SAC39252527116

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SAC) / 10 (CHI) games this season
CHI away
home SAC
49% 51%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Coby White S 38 35 1 5
Kevin Huerter S 37 25 5 7
Nikola Vucevic S 32 24 14 8
Tre Jones S 33 15 4 7
Dalen Terry 20 9 5 2
Patrick Williams 29 7 1 3
Zach Collins 8 6 3 0
Matas Buzelis S 15 5 1 0
Julian Phillips 27 2 6 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Malik Monk S 34 34 1 5
Trey Lyles 24 22 6 3
DeMar DeRozan S 36 22 3 5
Keegan Murray S 38 10 9 3
Jake LaRavia 22 10 7 3
Zach LaVine S 33 8 1 5
Jonas Valanciunas S 15 6 5 1
Devin Carter 20 4 2 2
Keon Ellis 18 0 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Nikola Vucevic · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:31 Q1
"Nikola Vucevic makes 24-foot three point jumper (Coby White assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Coby White CHI
11%
2 DeMar DeRozan SAC
11%
3 Tre Jones CHI
11%
4 Malik Monk SAC
10%
5 Nikola Vucevic CHI
10%
6 Jonas Valanciunas SAC
9%
7 Matas Buzelis CHI
8%
8 Zach LaVine SAC
8%
9 Kevin Huerter CHI
7%
10 Keon Ellis SAC
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
14%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
17%
Jumper
29%
Layup
37%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Coby White CHI 26.1 5.3 4.0
2 DeMar DeRozan SAC 25.0 4.1 6.2
3 Zach LaVine SAC 22.8 4.1 4.0
4 Malik Monk SAC 18.4 4.6 6.6
5 Nikola Vucevic CHI 15.8 7.6 2.6
6 Tre Jones CHI 14.9 4.3 6.1
7 Kevin Huerter CHI 14.6 3.9 2.9
8 Keegan Murray SAC 12.8 5.6 1.8
9 Matas Buzelis CHI 12.4 4.6 2.0
10 Jonas Valanciunas SAC 12.4 10.4 3.1
11 Zach Collins CHI 10.8 7.3 2.1
12 Keon Ellis SAC 10.4 3.2 2.0
13 Patrick Williams CHI 7.2 3.1 1.4
14 Jake LaRavia SAC 7.0 2.8 1.7
15 Trey Lyles SAC 6.9 5.0 2.1
16 Julian Phillips CHI 6.2 2.7 1.2
17 Jalen Smith CHI 5.5 4.6 0.9
18 Devin Carter SAC 5.1 2.1 1.2
19 Dalen Terry CHI 4.3 1.7 1.0
20 Jae Crowder SAC 4.0 2.2 0.8
21 Talen Horton-Tucker CHI 3.6 1.5 1.1
22 Markelle Fultz SAC 3.1 1.4 0.9
23 Jevon Carter CHI 3.0 0.9 1.2
24 Terry Taylor SAC 2.7 1.3 1.0
25 Doug McDermott SAC 2.3 0.6 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.