NBA games

MIL @ GS

NBA Chase Center ·Final
93104
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIL2717321793
GS32262026104

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (GS) / 10 (MIL) games this season
MIL away
home GS
35% 65%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kyle Kuzma S 37 22 2 2
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 39 20 9 7
Brook Lopez S 33 16 4 1
Damian Lillard S 38 16 3 4
Gary Trent Jr. 26 10 1 0
Taurean Prince S 32 6 8 1
Kevin Porter Jr. 15 2 5 2
AJ Green 14 1 2 0
Ryan Rollins 5 0 0 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jimmy Butler III S 37 24 8 10
Brandin Podziemski S 29 17 7 1
Buddy Hield 24 15 6 0
Quinten Post S 23 14 4 3
Jonathan Kuminga 24 10 2 2
Gary Payton II 17 8 0 1
Moses Moody S 25 7 7 3
Gui Santos 8 3 4 1
Draymond Green S 36 3 10 4
Pat Spencer 6 2 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Quinten Post · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:23 Q1
"Quinten Post makes 26-foot three point jumper (Moses Moody assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
17%
2 Jimmy Butler III GS
12%
3 Damian Lillard MIL
10%
4 Brandin Podziemski GS
10%
5 Kyle Kuzma MIL
9%
6 Draymond Green GS
8%
7 Brook Lopez MIL
7%
8 Moses Moody GS
7%
9 Taurean Prince MIL
7%
10 Quinten Post GS
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
0%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
58%
Jumper
13%
Layup
25%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 28.2 12.3 6.8
2 Stephen Curry GS 25.8 4.5 7.1
3 Damian Lillard MIL 22.7 4.8 6.0
4 Jonathan Kuminga GS 21.0 6.0 3.6
5 Jimmy Butler III GS 16.9 5.8 6.2
6 Draymond Green GS 13.5 6.9 6.2
7 Brook Lopez MIL 13.1 5.6 1.9
8 Kyle Kuzma MIL 12.5 6.0 1.7
9 Brandin Podziemski GS 12.5 4.7 3.0
10 Moses Moody GS 11.7 3.4 1.7
11 Gary Payton II GS 11.2 4.0 1.8
12 Gary Trent Jr. MIL 10.8 2.5 1.5
13 Kevin Porter Jr. MIL 10.2 3.4 3.4
14 Taurean Prince MIL 9.7 3.6 1.9
15 Buddy Hield GS 9.0 2.9 2.3
16 Quinten Post GS 8.6 4.5 1.3
17 Gui Santos GS 6.6 3.6 1.6
18 AJ Green MIL 6.1 1.9 1.7
19 Ryan Rollins MIL 5.5 2.2 1.4
20 Kevon Looney GS 5.0 4.8 1.0
21 Pat Connaughton MIL 4.1 1.8 1.1
22 Tyler Smith MIL 3.3 1.6 0.7
23 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 3.2 1.6 0.8
24 Kevin Knox II GS 3.1 1.3 0.4
25 Chris Livingston MIL 2.3 1.6 0.5
26 Pat Spencer GS 1.9 1.1 0.5
27 Pete Nance MIL 1.8 1.1 0.4
28 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 1.7 1.1 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.