NBA games

BKN @ IND

NBA Gainbridge Fieldhouse ·Final
99–105
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5T
BKN28241920899
IND2319252414105

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (IND) / 10 (BKN) games this season
BKN away
home IND
27% 73%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
D'Angelo Russell S 32 22 1 6
Ziaire Williams S 35 22 5 1
Trendon Watford 27 15 5 2
Noah Clowney 19 10 3 1
Maxwell Lewis 22 8 2 2
Nic Claxton S 31 6 14 0
Day'Ron Sharpe 23 6 9 2
Keon Johnson S 27 6 3 2
Tyrese Martin 31 4 4 4
Jalen Wilson S 19 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Bennedict Mathurin S 39 28 16 3
Myles Turner S 40 23 10 1
Aaron Nesmith S 35 14 6 0
Andrew Nembhard S 31 9 3 4
Jarace Walker 10 8 0 1
T.J. McConnell 18 7 1 1
Obi Toppin 18 7 3 1
Pascal Siakam S 35 6 6 5
Thomas Bryant 13 3 3 0
Quenton Jackson 4 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Keon Johnson · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:37 Q1
"Keon Johnson makes 23-foot three point jumper (D'Angelo Russell assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Pascal Siakam IND
14%
2 Cam Thomas BKN
14%
3 Myles Turner IND
12%
4 Nic Claxton BKN
10%
5 Bennedict Mathurin IND
9%
6 Aaron Nesmith IND
8%
7 Ziaire Williams BKN
8%
8 Andrew Nembhard IND
8%
9 Keon Johnson BKN
8%
10 D'Angelo Russell BKN
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
23%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
14%
Jumper
30%
Layup
28%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Pascal Siakam IND 25.1 6.1 4.1
2 Cam Thomas BKN 24.2 3.8 4.8
3 Aaron Nesmith IND 15.7 4.3 1.9
4 Myles Turner IND 15.5 5.8 2.1
5 D'Angelo Russell BKN 13.8 3.5 5.2
6 Bennedict Mathurin IND 13.6 3.8 2.2
7 Andrew Nembhard IND 12.4 3.2 5.7
8 Tyrese Martin BKN 11.8 3.4 2.3
9 Keon Johnson BKN 11.5 4.7 2.4
10 Ziaire Williams BKN 11.4 3.9 1.6
11 Nic Claxton BKN 10.9 7.6 3.0
12 Obi Toppin IND 10.9 4.1 1.8
13 Trendon Watford BKN 9.3 3.9 3.6
14 Noah Clowney BKN 9.0 3.9 1.0
15 Jalen Wilson BKN 8.3 1.9 1.4
16 T.J. McConnell IND 7.7 2.1 5.0
17 Day'Ron Sharpe BKN 6.5 6.7 1.8
18 Thomas Bryant IND 6.3 3.9 0.8
19 Ben Sheppard IND 5.9 3.2 1.7
20 Jarace Walker IND 4.3 1.8 1.1
21 Maxwell Lewis BKN 3.9 1.8 0.7
22 Tony Bradley IND 3.8 2.4 0.7
23 Quenton Jackson IND 3.6 1.4 1.1
24 Johnny Furphy IND 1.6 1.5 0.4
25 RayJ Dennis IND 1.4 0.7 0.5
26 James Johnson IND 1.3 0.8 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.