NBA games

NY @ CHA

NBA Spectrum Center ·Final
98–115
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NY1925282698
CHA27273130115

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHA) / 10 (NY) games this season
NY away
home CHA
57% 43%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
OG Anunoby S 38 25 6 2
Karl-Anthony Towns S 36 24 10 3
Mikal Bridges S 33 16 4 6
Josh Hart S 39 13 4 6
Miles McBride S 36 9 3 6
Cameron Payne 16 5 3 3
Anton Watson 2 2 1 0
MarJon Beauchamp 2 2 1 0
Precious Achiuwa 17 2 6 0
Tyler Kolek 2 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
LaMelo Ball S 28 25 5 8
Mark Williams S 31 19 14 4
Miles Bridges S 33 15 10 4
DaQuan Jeffries S 33 14 4 0
Nick Smith Jr. 27 13 4 3
Jusuf Nurkic 15 9 7 0
Moussa Diabate 12 7 5 0
Josh Green S 21 5 0 1
Seth Curry 18 4 1 3
Taj Gibson 1 2 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Mark Williams · Layup (2 pts) · 11:24 Q1
"Mark Williams makes two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Mark Williams CHA
12%
2 Miles Bridges CHA
11%
3 Mikal Bridges NY
10%
4 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
10%
5 OG Anunoby NY
9%
6 LaMelo Ball CHA
8%
7 Josh Hart NY
8%
8 Miles McBride NY
7%
9 Grant Williams CHA
6%
10 Seth Curry CHA
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
24%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
28%
Layup
29%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Miles Bridges CHA 24.6 8.3 5.0
2 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 23.2 10.5 2.7
3 OG Anunoby NY 20.7 5.5 3.2
4 Mikal Bridges NY 20.1 4.3 5.1
5 LaMelo Ball CHA 19.4 4.9 7.1
6 Mark Williams CHA 16.6 11.4 2.7
7 Nick Smith Jr. CHA 12.4 2.9 2.6
8 Josh Hart NY 12.3 8.9 5.4
9 Miles McBride NY 12.2 3.4 4.0
10 Grant Williams CHA 12.2 6.1 2.0
11 DaQuan Jeffries CHA 9.2 3.0 1.3
12 Jusuf Nurkic CHA 7.6 5.8 1.4
13 Josh Green CHA 7.0 2.8 2.1
14 Landry Shamet NY 6.2 1.9 0.8
15 Cameron Payne NY 6.0 1.7 2.6
16 Wendell Moore Jr. CHA 5.5 3.0 1.1
17 Seth Curry CHA 5.4 1.9 1.0
18 Moussa Diabate CHA 4.9 3.7 0.9
19 Precious Achiuwa NY 4.7 3.9 0.8
20 Delon Wright NY 2.8 1.7 1.2
21 Anton Watson NY 2.7 1.3 0.8
22 Tyler Kolek NY 2.7 1.1 0.9
23 Taj Gibson CHA 2.6 3.6 0.5
24 MarJon Beauchamp NY 2.4 1.2 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.