NBA games

CLE @ SAC

NBA Golden 1 Center ·Final
119–123
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CLE22343231119
SAC15324333123

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SAC) / 10 (CLE) games this season
CLE away
home SAC
51% 49%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Evan Mobley S 32 31 10 2
Donovan Mitchell S 33 26 5 4
Ty Jerome 26 14 1 6
Dean Wade S 23 12 7 1
Max Strus S 30 12 4 2
Jarrett Allen S 30 10 5 2
De'Andre Hunter 31 8 4 3
Isaac Okoro 16 5 0 0
Craig Porter Jr. 8 1 0 0
Sam Merrill 12 0 1 4
Player MIN PTS REB AST
DeMar DeRozan S 36 27 1 4
Malik Monk S 39 22 6 8
Devin Carter 31 16 5 3
Keon Ellis S 30 13 4 2
Trey Lyles 30 13 7 5
Keegan Murray S 37 13 4 3
Jonas Valanciunas S 25 12 13 2
Markelle Fultz 7 5 0 1
Isaac Jones 4 2 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Evan Mobley · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:38 Q1
"Evan Mobley makes 7-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE
16%
2 Jarrett Allen CLE
15%
3 Evan Mobley CLE
15%
4 DeMar DeRozan SAC
14%
5 Malik Monk SAC
14%
6 Keegan Murray SAC
13%
7 Max Strus CLE
10%
8 Ty Jerome CLE
0%
9 Dean Wade CLE
0%
10 De'Andre Hunter CLE
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
19%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
8%
Jumper
39%
Layup
30%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE 24.9 4.4 5.8
2 DeMar DeRozan SAC 24.4 4.7 6.2
3 Evan Mobley CLE 20.4 9.0 3.8
4 Malik Monk SAC 18.5 4.7 6.4
5 De'Andre Hunter CLE 14.4 4.2 1.6
6 Keegan Murray SAC 14.1 5.5 1.7
7 Jarrett Allen CLE 13.9 9.3 2.0
8 Ty Jerome CLE 12.8 3.1 3.0
9 Jonas Valanciunas SAC 12.3 10.3 2.9
10 Max Strus CLE 11.3 4.3 2.7
11 Keon Ellis SAC 10.1 3.2 1.9
12 Sam Merrill CLE 6.9 2.3 1.0
13 Trey Lyles SAC 5.9 4.4 1.6
14 Isaac Okoro CLE 5.7 2.3 1.0
15 Dean Wade CLE 5.2 2.7 1.0
16 Javonte Green CLE 4.9 2.5 0.9
17 Devin Carter SAC 4.5 1.8 1.1
18 Jae Crowder SAC 4.0 2.3 0.7
19 Jaylon Tyson CLE 3.9 1.6 1.1
20 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 3.6 1.8 1.3
21 Isaac Jones SAC 3.1 1.4 0.5
22 Terry Taylor SAC 2.6 1.3 0.9
23 Doug McDermott SAC 2.4 0.7 0.4
24 Markelle Fultz SAC 2.2 1.1 0.6
25 Tristan Thompson CLE 1.9 1.7 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.