NBA games

MEM @ POR

NBA Moda Center ·Final
99–115
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MEM2929311099
POR38332519115

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (POR) / 10 (MEM) games this season
MEM away
home POR
49% 51%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Desmond Bane S 36 20 7 4
Scotty Pippen Jr. 31 18 6 4
Santi Aldama 27 16 5 1
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 29 14 5 2
Jay Huff 13 8 3 2
Luke Kennard S 25 6 3 3
Zach Edey S 11 6 3 2
Vince Williams Jr. 18 4 2 3
John Konchar 20 3 3 2
Marvin Bagley III 2 2 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Deni Avdija S 39 31 16 8
Anfernee Simons S 36 22 5 3
Shaedon Sharpe S 30 17 7 5
Toumani Camara S 32 15 2 3
Duop Reath 20 13 9 0
Donovan Clingan S 26 7 11 0
Scoot Henderson 20 5 3 5
Matisse Thybulle 11 3 6 1
Kris Murray 18 2 4 0
Justin Minaya 2 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Toumani Camara · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:27 Q1
"Toumani Camara makes 25-foot three point jumper (Shaedon Sharpe assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Deandre Ayton POR
10%
2 Anfernee Simons POR
10%
3 Desmond Bane MEM
9%
4 Deni Avdija POR
8%
5 Shaedon Sharpe POR
8%
6 Zach Edey MEM
7%
7 Donovan Clingan POR
7%
8 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
7%
9 Jaylen Wells MEM
6%
10 Jerami Grant POR
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
12%
Free Throw
26%
Jumper
30%
Layup
31%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Desmond Bane MEM 24.9 8.4 6.0
2 Anfernee Simons POR 23.6 3.2 4.1
3 Deni Avdija POR 20.6 8.4 5.4
4 Shaedon Sharpe POR 20.2 5.8 3.7
5 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 19.9 4.9 2.2
6 Deandre Ayton POR 18.3 10.8 2.5
7 Scoot Henderson POR 16.7 3.9 5.2
8 Toumani Camara POR 13.8 4.9 3.0
9 Santi Aldama MEM 12.0 5.5 3.4
10 Jerami Grant POR 12.0 3.5 2.1
11 Luke Kennard MEM 10.6 2.9 3.9
12 Brandon Clarke MEM 10.6 6.7 1.3
13 Zach Edey MEM 9.7 8.3 1.0
14 Scotty Pippen Jr. MEM 9.6 3.5 4.3
15 Donovan Clingan POR 9.6 9.6 2.1
16 Jaylen Wells MEM 9.2 3.6 1.9
17 Vince Williams Jr. MEM 7.5 3.1 1.8
18 Duop Reath POR 6.3 3.2 1.2
19 Kris Murray POR 5.8 3.8 1.3
20 Cam Spencer MEM 5.1 1.9 1.5
21 Dalano Banton POR 4.4 2.1 1.5
22 Marvin Bagley III MEM 3.6 2.8 0.4
23 Jay Huff MEM 3.6 1.9 0.6
24 John Konchar MEM 3.0 2.0 0.7
25 Justin Minaya POR 2.4 1.1 0.7
26 Bryce McGowens POR 2.3 1.0 0.6
27 Rayan Rupert POR 1.4 0.8 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.