NBA games

CHI @ PHX

NBA Mortgage Matchup Center ·Final
121–127
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHI22293337121
PHX31323628127

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHX) / 10 (CHI) games this season
CHI away
home PHX
55% 45%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Coby White S 35 24 6 5
Nikola Vucevic S 30 24 6 2
Josh Giddey 31 22 7 7
Kevin Huerter S 32 15 2 4
Tre Jones S 32 12 6 9
Zach Collins 18 8 7 1
Julian Phillips 15 6 2 0
Matas Buzelis S 25 5 0 1
Patrick Williams 18 5 2 0
Dalen Terry 5 0 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Devin Booker S 36 41 4 7
Kevin Durant S 36 26 4 8
Nick Richards S 28 18 9 2
Ryan Dunn S 30 16 5 0
Cody Martin 17 7 2 0
Tyus Jones 21 6 1 2
Royce O'Neale 26 5 10 5
Collin Gillespie S 26 4 5 7
Oso Ighodaro 20 4 6 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Devin Booker · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:21 Q1
"Devin Booker makes 15-foot pullup jump shot (Nick Richards assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Devin Booker PHX
12%
2 Coby White CHI
11%
3 Nick Richards PHX
10%
4 Kevin Durant PHX
10%
5 Josh Giddey CHI
10%
6 Tre Jones CHI
9%
7 Matas Buzelis CHI
9%
8 Nikola Vucevic CHI
8%
9 Collin Gillespie PHX
7%
10 Ryan Dunn PHX
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
19%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
23%
Layup
33%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kevin Durant PHX 24.8 6.5 5.1
2 Coby White CHI 24.2 4.8 4.1
3 Devin Booker PHX 23.8 4.3 7.7
4 Josh Giddey CHI 22.7 9.3 7.7
5 Tre Jones CHI 15.1 3.9 5.7
6 Nikola Vucevic CHI 14.0 8.0 2.6
7 Kevin Huerter CHI 13.8 3.8 2.6
8 Zach Collins CHI 12.6 8.2 2.8
9 Matas Buzelis CHI 12.1 4.8 2.0
10 Nick Richards PHX 11.2 8.4 1.3
11 Tyus Jones PHX 9.7 2.3 4.4
12 Vasilije Micic PHX 9.2 2.6 3.3
13 Royce O'Neale PHX 8.9 4.1 2.8
14 Bol Bol PHX 7.9 3.7 1.2
15 Patrick Williams CHI 7.4 3.2 1.4
16 Cody Martin PHX 6.5 3.8 2.4
17 Ryan Dunn PHX 5.8 2.9 0.9
18 Julian Phillips CHI 5.7 2.6 1.2
19 Jalen Smith CHI 5.6 4.7 0.9
20 Dalen Terry CHI 4.7 1.4 1.2
21 Oso Ighodaro PHX 4.4 3.5 1.1
22 Damion Lee PHX 4.4 1.4 0.8
23 Collin Gillespie PHX 4.3 2.1 1.8
24 Monte Morris PHX 4.1 1.3 1.4
25 Talen Horton-Tucker CHI 4.0 1.7 1.1
26 TyTy Washington Jr. PHX 3.3 1.4 1.1
27 Jevon Carter CHI 3.0 0.9 1.2

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.