NBA games

DEN @ LAL

NBA crypto.com Arena ·Final
108–120
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DEN29301831108
LAL46273215120

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAL) / 10 (DEN) games this season
DEN away
home LAL
24% 76%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Aaron Gordon S 30 26 11 0
Jalen Pickett 19 14 4 5
Michael Porter Jr. S 28 12 4 1
Russell Westbrook S 29 12 4 9
Peyton Watson S 25 12 2 2
Christian Braun S 28 10 4 3
Spencer Jones 29 9 3 0
Hunter Tyson 12 6 1 1
PJ Hall 8 5 2 1
Vlatko Cancar 22 2 8 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Luka Doncic S 32 31 8 7
Austin Reaves S 36 22 5 8
Dorian Finney-Smith S 30 14 4 4
Gabe Vincent 23 12 0 1
Dalton Knecht 25 12 3 1
Jarred Vanderbilt 18 10 2 1
Jordan Goodwin S 26 8 3 3
Jaxson Hayes S 24 6 7 0
Christian Koloko 14 4 5 0
Shake Milton 7 1 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jaxson Hayes · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:42 Q1
"Jaxson Hayes makes 2-foot dunk (Luka Doncic assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Luka Doncic LAL
13%
2 Austin Reaves LAL
11%
3 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
10%
4 Aaron Gordon DEN
9%
5 Christian Braun DEN
9%
6 Jaxson Hayes LAL
9%
7 Russell Westbrook DEN
8%
8 Alex Len LAL
6%
9 Peyton Watson DEN
6%
10 Hunter Tyson DEN
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
11%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
71%
Jumper
3%
Layup
14%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic LAL 31.1 8.5 9.7
2 Austin Reaves LAL 22.7 5.2 5.7
3 Christian Braun DEN 18.1 4.8 3.6
4 Aaron Gordon DEN 18.0 4.8 3.0
5 Russell Westbrook DEN 17.3 5.7 6.2
6 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 16.6 7.6 2.1
7 Dalton Knecht LAL 13.0 3.7 1.8
8 Jaxson Hayes LAL 11.0 7.0 1.7
9 Gabe Vincent LAL 9.7 1.8 1.8
10 Dorian Finney-Smith LAL 8.6 3.8 1.4
11 Jordan Goodwin LAL 7.4 3.7 1.4
12 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL 6.4 5.4 1.6
13 Peyton Watson DEN 6.3 2.9 1.2
14 Zeke Nnaji DEN 5.0 2.6 0.8
15 Shake Milton LAL 4.9 1.8 1.1
16 Bronny James LAL 4.1 1.5 0.8
17 Christian Koloko LAL 3.9 2.7 1.0
18 Jalen Pickett DEN 3.8 1.3 1.3
19 Hunter Tyson DEN 3.7 1.6 0.6
20 Dario Saric DEN 3.7 2.7 1.4
21 Vlatko Cancar DEN 3.5 2.0 0.7
22 Markieff Morris LAL 3.1 0.9 0.8
23 Cam Reddish LAL 2.8 1.3 0.6
24 Spencer Jones DEN 2.3 1.3 0.5
25 DeAndre Jordan DEN 2.3 4.2 0.5
26 Alex Len LAL 1.9 1.7 0.6
27 PJ Hall DEN 1.3 1.1 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.