NBA games

TOR @ GS

NBA Chase Center ·Final
114–117
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
TOR30313122114
GS33342624117

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (GS) / 10 (TOR) games this season
TOR away
home GS
31% 69%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Scottie Barnes S 34 29 10 6
Immanuel Quickley S 31 21 4 8
Jakob Poeltl S 28 18 8 2
Jamison Battle 33 14 2 2
Jamal Shead 27 11 4 6
Ochai Agbaji S 26 9 5 1
Colin Castleton 19 7 3 2
Jonathan Mogbo S 28 5 5 4
A.J. Lawson 10 0 2 0
Garrett Temple 5 0 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Draymond Green S 31 21 7 5
Quinten Post 22 18 2 0
Stephen Curry S 25 17 2 1
Jonathan Kuminga 25 16 4 3
Jimmy Butler III S 36 16 11 12
Brandin Podziemski S 35 15 3 1
Buddy Hield 19 8 5 4
Moses Moody S 27 4 1 2
Kevon Looney 9 2 2 0
Gui Santos 10 0 1 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Draymond Green · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:40 Q1
"Draymond Green makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jimmy Butler III assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Scottie Barnes TOR
12%
2 Jimmy Butler III GS
11%
3 Jakob Poeltl TOR
9%
4 Brandin Podziemski GS
8%
5 Moses Moody GS
8%
6 Immanuel Quickley TOR
8%
7 Colin Castleton TOR
7%
8 Draymond Green GS
7%
9 Jonathan Mogbo TOR
7%
10 Jamison Battle TOR
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
10%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
17%
Jumper
32%
Layup
33%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Stephen Curry GS 26.3 4.6 6.7
2 Immanuel Quickley TOR 20.1 4.6 5.6
3 Scottie Barnes TOR 19.8 7.3 4.9
4 Jonathan Kuminga GS 18.9 5.8 3.2
5 Jimmy Butler III GS 18.8 6.2 6.5
6 Brandin Podziemski GS 13.9 5.8 2.9
7 Jakob Poeltl TOR 12.8 6.8 3.2
8 Draymond Green GS 12.6 7.4 5.8
9 Orlando Robinson TOR 11.9 7.3 2.6
10 Moses Moody GS 11.6 3.8 1.8
11 A.J. Lawson TOR 10.9 4.0 1.6
12 Gary Payton II GS 10.9 3.8 1.6
13 Buddy Hield GS 10.0 3.3 2.1
14 Jamal Shead TOR 8.7 2.3 4.1
15 Ochai Agbaji TOR 8.6 3.4 1.0
16 Quinten Post GS 8.3 4.5 1.4
17 Jamison Battle TOR 7.1 3.3 0.9
18 Gui Santos GS 6.7 3.8 1.7
19 Colin Castleton TOR 6.1 5.7 1.5
20 Chris Boucher TOR 5.4 3.5 0.7
21 Jonathan Mogbo TOR 5.3 3.5 1.6
22 Kevon Looney GS 4.7 4.5 0.9
23 Garrett Temple TOR 3.1 1.3 1.3
24 Pat Spencer GS 2.8 1.7 0.7
25 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 2.4 1.7 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.